Bitcoin Surges 7%, Is the "Digital Gold" Narrative Back?

Waking up to a surge in Bitcoin price to over $93,000 driven by optimism in the improvement of US-China trade relations, with a 24-hour gain of over 7%. However, according to a report by CryptoQuant, on-chain data shows that the market fundamentals still exhibit vulnerability, and BTC is facing a key resistance level.

According to Coinglass data, there have been $490 million in liquidations across the network in the past 12 hours, with $450 million in short liquidations.

Meanwhile, gold saw a significant pullback from its intraday high of $3,500, dropping by 1%. The world's largest gold ETF--SPDR Gold Trust--saw a reduction of 11.47 tons in holdings compared to the previous day, with current holdings at 947.70 tons.

This rally is not merely a short-term reaction to the warming of US-China trade relations but more like a risk repricing under multiple macro signals. In this storm of policy maneuvering and safe-haven demand, Bitcoin is once again seen as a capital "safe harbor," with its price surge possibly being a preemptive response to future inflation, US dollar credit, and global geopolitical shifts.

Is Tariff Reversal Sustainable?

The primary reason for Bitcoin's recent surge is attributed to the Trump administration's shift in tariff policy.

Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Benson, in a closed-door meeting at JPMorgan, told investors that the current tariff standoff with China is unsustainable. He expects a "thaw" to occur "in the near future" and described the current situation as a "trade embargo." However, he also warned that reaching a more comprehensive agreement between the US and China may still take several years.

Subsequently, President Trump stated to the media at the White House that the US tariffs on China "will be significantly reduced from the current 145% level," easing concerns of further escalation in the trade war.

Currently, the Trump administration has engaged in trade negotiations with Japan, India, South Korea, the EU, Canada, Mexico, and other countries. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt stated that the Trump administration has received 18 trade agreement proposals from other countries and added, "All parties involved want to see a trade agreement reached."

However, despite this, Trump has not publicly indicated intentions to repeal the "10% base tariff" he has set. He continues to insist that other countries should lower their own import duties and eliminate various non-tariff barriers, which the US views as hindrances to American exports.

Bitcoin Decoupling from Traditional Finance

According to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) April 2025 World Economic Outlook report, the U.S. economic growth forecast for this year has been revised down to 1.8% from 2.7%, and the inflation outlook has been raised from 1.9% to 3%. The report also predicts a broader global economic slowdown. Less than an hour after the report was released, Bitcoin surged to its highest level in seven weeks, breaking the $90,000 mark.

Some analysts have pointed out that Bitcoin's recent performance supports the view that it is decoupling from the trends of traditional finance and tech stocks. Patrick Liou, Vice President of Institutional Sales at Gemini, stated that Bitcoin's modest "deviation" reflects investors' cautious stance in the face of U.S. political and macroeconomic risks, especially President Trump's recent criticism of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the progress of post-war trade negotiations.

BTC vs. Nasdaq and USD Index Comparison Chart

"We noticed the true 'decoupling' signs began to emerge on Sunday evening," said Patrick Liou. "Considering Trump's increasingly strong language towards the Fed and the unfolding trade agreement negotiations post-'Liberation Day,' investors are in a risk-off mode when evaluating the U.S. market. Interestingly, one of the directions of fund rotation is towards Bitcoin, and we can clearly see Bitcoin exhibiting a distinct decoupling trend from U.S. stocks and the dollar."

Following the Western Easter holiday, the stock market saw a pullback on Monday, but Bitcoin rallied against the trend, following gold's strong performance. The Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $381.4 million that day, the highest single-day inflow since the end of January, further demonstrating the strong demand for Bitcoin in the market.

Analysts at QCP Capital pointed out that the soaring gold price, weakening dollar, and institutional funds flowing into Bitcoin have jointly supported the argument that "Bitcoin is decoupling." "Bitcoin's resilience in overnight trading further strengthens the decoupling market narrative," the QCP analysts stated. "As funds shift towards safe-haven and inflation-resistant assets, Bitcoin and gold are becoming the biggest beneficiaries of fund flight from the dollar risk.

While analysts from QCP Capital and Bernstein emphasize the attractiveness of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, Jake O., an OTC trader at Wintermute, cautioned that this "decoupling" phenomenon may be broken after a dollar rebound.

「As I mentioned yesterday, I believe that this current market surge is mainly driven by the weakening of the US Dollar. If this is indeed the case, once the DXY stabilizes, the decoupling of Bitcoin from the US stock market may be difficult to sustain. This is the most crucial variable this week, and this assumption has not yet been truly tested.」

Trump Has No Intention to Fire Powell

On April 22, as Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chair Powell as a "total loser" on Truth Social, and called for an immediate rate cut, even considering dismissal, the market was concerned that the Fed's independence was compromised. The US Dollar Index (DXY) quickly fell below 98, hitting a nearly three-year low.

Analysts at Bitunix stated that if US political pressure persists, it could undermine the legal framework of the Federal Reserve, prompting global funds to accelerate their search for safe havens. This could also accelerate the move of funds from the US Dollar to assets such as Bitcoin and stablecoins, which have anti-censorship and anti-seizure properties.

However, last night, ECB President Lagarde stated in an interview: "Both Powell and I are used to political pressure, and I have great respect for them, believing that Powell will not be dismissed." Citigroup's Chief Economist stated that Trump will not fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell, and "this boundary will not be crossed."

Therefore, Trump's lack of intention to fire Powell has also maintained the stability of the global financial market order. But if Trump does indeed fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell as rumored, the US Dollar Index and US stocks will face further downward pressure, while Bitcoin and gold will become the mainstream choice for safe-haven funds.