Breaker Game Over Line: Why Are Young People Turning to Long-Termism?

Original Title: The Prison Of Financial Mediocrity

Original Author: @systematicls, Quantitative Analyst

Original Translation: Luffy, Foresight News

I am not a stock picking guru. I believe in a wide net, low win rate (≤53%) betting strategy, but I am willing to go all in on one view: Long-term speculation will be the mainstream socio-economic theme of the next century.

This also explains why those over 40 would advise you to focus on your job, seek a raise, while those of other ages would ignore this advice and relentlessly pursue any opportunity that could make them rich.

The best product sold to this group of people is hope. Understanding this, you can understand why all kinds of casinos (including decentralized exchanges, prediction markets, etc.) have emerged, and why trading mentors, business gurus, paid courses, and of course, substack paid newsletter subscriptions, have become so popular.

The Beginning of the Plight

To be trapped does not always require a physical prison. Today, a generation is moving forward with invisible chains.

They know that a certain kind of life exists: owning a house and a car, living a stable life, and being rewarded after dedicating themselves diligently for thirty years. They know that there are people living this life, yet they cannot imagine how they could ever reach it. It's not a matter of difficulty; they simply cannot plan a feasible path from their current situation to their ideal life.

The traditional path to wealth accumulation has long been closed off, not harder to navigate, but completely blocked. When the baby boomer generation holds nearly 50% of the nation's wealth with only 20% of the total population, while the millennial generation holds the same percentage but only 10% of the wealth, the inherent flaws of this wealth accumulation mechanism are blatantly exposed.

The ladder to climb up has been taken away. This was not an intentional act by the baby boomers, as asset price appreciation naturally benefits asset holders. However, regardless of intent, the end result leads to the same conclusion.

The Collapse of the Traditional Covenant

In the past, society's implicit covenant was simple: show up on time, work hard, be loyal to the company, and you will be rewarded. The company would provide a pension, seniority mattered, and your house would silently appreciate while you slept. As long as you trusted this system, it would work for you.

Today, this contract has become nothing but a piece of paper.

Working at a company for 20 years is no longer a career booster but a professional liability. With a salary growth of only 8%, housing prices doubling, and young people's debt pressure soaring by about 33%, patience alone cannot find the path to wealth.

I used to think the situation was bad enough, but with the rise of artificial intelligence and the economic impact it is about to bring, I realize that the situation will only become more severe.

When the system no longer rewards patience, people will naturally abandon patience. This is the rational adaptation.

Push and Pull Forces

Currently, two forces are pulling young people forward.

Pull: Unmet High-Level Needs

Modern society has essentially met the bottom-level needs of Maslow's hierarchy. Food prices are low, basic housing is traceable, safety, healthcare, and basic employment, while not guaranteed, are enough to keep most young people from struggling for survival.

Facing economic pressure, the older generation faced a different dilemma. When you are worried about food and shelter, you simply have no time to think about the meaning of life. Working hard is the obvious choice because not doing so would lead to hunger. You would accept a stable job, keep a low profile, after all, this job is your livelihood.

But this generation does not have such survival shackles.

When survival needs are met, humans will pursue higher-level needs: belonging, respect, and self-actualization. They crave rich life experiences, yearn for the meaning of life, desire direction and purpose in their lives, rather than day-to-day repetition. However, the traditional paths to meet these higher-level needs—buying a house, career advancement, financial security—have all been blocked.

Essentially, we are like a group of apes instinctively scratching at this "scar" of self-actualization, blood flowing but helpless, not knowing how to break free.

Push: Escalating Existential Anxiety

Artificial intelligence is eroding white-collar jobs, this is a well-known fact.

This anxiety is not groundless. The copy written by ChatGPT surpasses that of most junior marketers; the visual work generated by Midjourney far exceeds that of entry-level designers; the code written by Cursor and Claude is enough to pass review. Except for those severely lagging in skills, almost everyone acknowledges this.

Every month brings new test data showing that in tasks that used to require advanced education and years of training, artificial intelligence has reached or surpassed human levels.

The white-collar workforce, or those aspiring to improve their financial situation, are watching helplessly as the shelf life of their careers continues to shrink. Three years ago, the notion of "AI replacing knowledge workers" was just a thought experiment; now, it's a foundational assumption in corporate planning. Everyone is asking "when" they will be replaced, not "if," and the predicted timeframe keeps moving up.

To make matters worse, social media ensures you are forever discontent with your current state.

The ultimate goal of algorithms is to show you the life you could have had. The vacation spots you haven't visited, the apartments you can't afford, the upscale lifestyle above yours. No matter what stage of life you are in, someone is living the life you desire, and the algorithm can always accurately serve it to you.

The lives of others that previous generations could access were very limited, only neighbors, colleagues, or a few celebrities in magazines, a very narrow frame of reference. But now, the frame of reference has become infinitely vast. A 25-year-old earning $70,000 a year will continuously see peers making $2 million a year, living in Bali, working only 4 hours a day. The standard of "good" keeps rising.

You can never catch up. Whatever you achieve, social media will show you your shortcomings. The gap between your real life and your ideal life is constantly maintained by algorithms, and can never be bridged.

On one side, artificial intelligence continues to shrink job prospects, and on the other side, social media makes it impossible to ever be satisfied. The pressure to "escape the trap while you still can" is growing.

The sense of anxiety is ubiquitous. Every white-collar worker has pondered: "Can artificial intelligence take over my job? When?" The majority of people do not have optimistic answers. Even if they believe they are temporarily safe, that temporary limit is constantly shortening.

As a result, this generation is caught in a dilemma: they cannot afford traditional life milestones, yet they believe the traditional path may disappear completely before they reach the finish line. Taking a leap of faith while there is still money and opportunity at hand has become the most rational choice.

After all, why toil for twenty years for a promotion opportunity that may not exist in a decade?

Maslow's Trap

When you can survive but can't move forward, something inside you collapses. You are not desperate enough to accept any conditions, yet you are blocked from truly significant opportunities. The energy once used for survival is now all transformed into feelings of frustration, confusion, and a desperate search for any possible way out.

Career advancement is not just about a salary increase, but also about gaining a sense of purpose, identity, and the satisfaction of feeling that "one's work is valuable." Financial security is not just about money, but also about having the confidence to take risks, the freedom to travel the world, and the ability to create.

When these paths are blocked and the window of opportunity to achieve these goals keeps shrinking, the pressure needs an outlet. These "prisoners" urgently need a way out and they need to find it now.

Casino: The Only Lifeline

I first saw this phenomenon in the cryptocurrency public blockchain space, initially dismissing it as a trend. Later, this trend appeared in the NFT space, then escalated in the chaos of perpetual contract decentralized exchanges, and has now spread to the so-called "prediction market super cycle."

Young people who are unwilling to work diligently for the same company are willing to spend months studying cryptocurrency trading; they invest a lot of energy in researching the prediction market, trying to understand this "manipulated economy" they wholeheartedly believe in; those who mock traditional investments as an "insider's game" will gamble their rent money on a meme coin.

Why is that?

Because the casino is the only place where they can feel a sense of control. Here, their decisions can possibly open the door to a higher level of life within a time frame that matters to them.

Traditional career path? Your boss gets promoted based on seniority rather than ability, and your department could be automated at any time. Stock market investment? Sure, you could earn a 10% return each year and then afford a house in 47 years, provided you still have a job.

But cryptocurrency? Prediction markets? Sports betting? Here, your research truly matters, and your conviction can bring returns. Even if it's just a form of "self-perceived advantage," it entirely belongs to you, without relying on others' charity. In these fields of endeavor, your judgment can directly determine the outcome.

The casino does have a house edge, and most people will ultimately lose. I believe most people actually understand this. But they still choose to participate because they are unwilling to sit and wait for a future that may never come. Those who advise them to "stop gambling" simply do not understand the predicament of these "prisoners" and often carry a sense of intellectual superiority with a "you're engaging in negative expected value gaming" attitude. My view is: these gamblers are fully aware of this.

Those who say, "Gambling is harmful, you should quit," are almost exclusively from the privileged upper echelons of the financial sector. They can see a way out, find a path, and therefore extol the benefits of "following the rules."

But for countless individuals trapped in a financial prison, gambling is their redemption. And the rhetoric of admonition is no different from asking them to accept a fate of eternal damnation. That's why they resist, why your earnest advice falls on deaf ears.

The Cold Data: The Reality Behind the Fervor

What about the specific data?

· Prediction Markets: In November 2025 alone, the trading volume on two major platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, surpassed $10 billion, with an annual total nearing $40 billion. In 2020, this number was nearly zero, with a growth trajectory so steep it's almost vertical.

· Sports Betting: Revenue from legal sports betting soared from $2.48 billion in 2017 to $13.7 billion in 2024. Millennials and Gen Z contributed 76% of the betting volume, with a 7% year-over-year increase in activity on online sports betting platforms.

TransUnion's report defines such bettors as "speculators": city renters, frequent users of cryptocurrency apps, active on mobile trading platforms. These young people, shut out from the traditional paths to wealth accumulation, are going all-in in the only market that can provide an asymmetric return.

Economic Theory Validation

When people are in a bind, their risk appetite changes.

Economists call this phenomenon "loss aversion utility": when you are already in a loss state, you are more willing to take a gamble rather than accept a certain small loss, even if there is only a tiny chance of turning things around. This is why people who lose money in a blackjack game choose to double down, and it is also the root of why lottery sales are higher in low-income communities.

In my view, driven by social media and high-end demand, those who have not yet reached the upper financial echelons have developed a delusion of "having already lost." The benchmark of the "break-even point" has been significantly raised. This also explains why some people earnestly say, "an annual income of $150,000 is just getting by." This generation gambles not to survive, but to truly live.

When basic needs are met and higher-level needs are blocked, the meaning of money shifts from "security" to "gaining entry"—entry to experiences, entry to freedom, and entry to that unattainable ideal life. A home is no longer just a shelter from the elements but a grounding assurance, a foundation for building community, a symbol of adulthood; travel is no longer a luxury but an experience that makes life worth living.

For this generation, since there seems to be no hope of achieving these goals through traditional means, the expected value of taking a chance begins to outweigh the expected value of grinding it out. If your life's baseline is "forever staying still," then even a perceived 5% chance of a turnaround is far more attractive at a mathematical level than being 100% stuck in place.

This is not financial ignorance but a rational choice in a trapped environment.

Those meme coin speculators, sports bettors, prediction market regulars, paid subscription trading course takers all understand the slim odds of winning. They also understand they have no other choice. When faced with only the options of "definitely stuck" and "high likelihood of being stuck but with a glimmer of hope," anyone would choose the latter.

Long-Term Speculatism

So, what should we bet on?

If my judgment is correct, this generation of young people locked in an economic quagmire will continue to seek a sense of control through high-volatility financial products; therefore, all race tracks that meet this demand are worth long-term investment.

Regardless of whether users win or lose, the platform is always the winner. What you are looking for are platforms that do not care about the user's bet outcome, only profit from transaction fees, and the trading activity of these platforms is continuously soaring.

· Startup Race Track: The landscape of the "escape from the 9-5" industry is rapidly expanding. Some sell dropshipping tutorials, some teach the agency model, some peddle the "earn $100,000 a month" secret. "Entrepreneurship as a boss" has long been a socially accepted "lottery ticket" — it sounds positive, full of a sense of control, as if you are building your own career. Most entrepreneurs will eventually fail, but this will not dampen people's enthusiasm in the slightest, just as low winning odds do not affect lottery sales.

· Prediction Markets: Polymarket's valuation has reached 80-100 billion US dollars. People forecast that the overall potential market size of this race track rivals the entire gambling industry, exceeding one trillion US dollars. Even if this forecast is 90% fluff, it is still a tremendously large market.

· Cryptocurrency Infrastructure: Custody, trading, staking, lending — every wave of speculative frenzy requires new entry channels. Coinbase, Robinhood's cryptocurrency business line, various professional trading platforms can profit from transaction volume regardless of market trends.

· Sports Betting Operators: DraftKings, FanDuel, and their infrastructure providers. Legal sports betting is gradually expanding in various states in the US, and regulatory barriers have built a solid moat.

· Social Trading and Community Platforms: Discord, X platform, Substack serving this audience. These platforms attract massive attention, and users are willing to pay for the so-called "exclusive insider information."

What we are betting on is not the outcome of a particular speculator, but the sustainability of this phenomenon. The underlying economic reality driving young people into high-risk speculation will not easily change. Platforms profiting from transaction fees will grow in tandem with their user base. Those trapped in a financial prison will continue to place bets time and time again, never stopping.

Considering the known trends in artificial intelligence development, soaring housing prices, imbalanced wealth distribution, intergenerational economic gaps... Is all of this really just a temporary phenomenon?

Moral Dimension Reflection

It is important to note that my argument is descriptive, not prescriptive.

Watching a generation pin their hopes of financial redemption on various forms of "lottery" is far from something to celebrate. When predicting markets and meme coins becomes the only path for people to seek a sense of control, this in itself is a symptom of societal malfunction. The house always wins, and most players will end up losing everything.

However, understanding the reality unfolding can help you find your place. It can make you reflect on the current situation and decide whether to participate. If you choose to get involved, you must stay vigilant and only bet in areas where you have an edge.

Every era's casino profits from people's despair. And the current desperation is real, verifiable, and escalating. These casinos are peddlers of hope—Polymarket, Coinbase, DraftKings are all in this category. They continuously extract fees, raking in profits.

You can stand on a moral high ground and criticize all this, or you can choose to engage with these platforms. Ironically, the latter is one of the few paths that can help you escape the financial prison. Or, you can join the ranks of gamblers—but if you choose this path, you must excel to the fullest.

Because this is not a game. What we are talking about is your life. If you are willing to wager your life, you must do everything possible to secure the best odds for yourself.

Conclusion

Let me tell you a true story.

I know a person, very intelligent, working in the tech industry, and by any historical standard, his income is quite substantial. Last month, he invested $100,000 in a perpetual contract on a decentralized exchange platform to farm platform tokens. He did this not because he thought it was a profitable investment.

But because, in his words: "What else can I do? Am I supposed to save money for twenty years and then buy an apartment at 55?"

I'm well aware that when the next decentralized exchange emerges, he'll take another punt.

The age of HODL is only just beginning.

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