CICC: The Federal Reserve will not cut or raise interest rates this year, and we need to be wary of the risk of a rebound in total demand

According to Jinshi reports, the research report from China International Capital Corporation believes that the current inflation in the United States is still mainly driven by structural factors such as energy shocks, and cyclical inflation is not yet apparent. However, we need to be vigilant about the risks of total demand recovery brought about by the expansion of AI capital expenditures and improvements in employment. We maintain the baseline judgment that the Federal Reserve will not lower or raise interest rates this year, and we expect the Fed's stance to remain hawkish. After taking office, Waller's primary task is to rebuild policy credibility.