Data: The analyst market is digesting panic, and on-chain indicators show that Bitcoin has a bottom expectation structure

On-chain analyst Murphy stated that BTC fell below the $60,000 mark yesterday, but the market losses and sentiment indicators did not deteriorate simultaneously. The 3-day moving average of the adjusted realized losses (EARL) is $1.13 billion, nearly halving compared to the value on February 5. He believes this does not mean that BTC will not continue to decline, but under lower price conditions, EARL has not risen further, indicating a standard structure with "bottom expectations."

If EARL represents the level of market panic, STH-RUL (Short-Term Holder Relative Unrealized Loss) represents the psychological pressure faced by new investors. During the decline after entering a bear market, short-term holders typically experience a severe psychological limit, and STH-RUL will exceed +5 standard deviations, corresponding to a systemic crisis. Even if prices continue to drop afterward, STH-RUL often does not exceed previous peaks again, as the chips have already changed hands in the high loss range, with new buyers at a lower cost, and market pressure is being digested.

Murphy believes that EARL and STH-RUL currently give a consistent signal, indicating that market panic is being digested rather than spreading. Prices are hitting new lows, but loss indicators are not simultaneously hitting new highs. This is not a sufficient condition for a bottom, but historically, true bottoms almost always exhibit this characteristic. Bottoming is a process of repeated pressure and digestion until the chips change hands in panic, and new buyers have a sufficiently low cost, at which point prices will gradually lose the momentum to continue declining.