Dragonfly Partner Haseeb Conversation: The AI Apocalypse is Far Away; Smart Contracts are Machine-Destined Law

Original Video Title: Haseeb on AI, AGI Timeline, 10/11 & the Only Rule That Matters in Crypto

Original Source: 168x
Original Compilation: TechFlow Deep Tide

“In the crypto world, survival is the ultimate Alpha. As long as you're still at the table, you're eligible to feast.”

Dragonfly Capital Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi, in the East-West Capital Dialogue program "168X" Consensus HK Special, from the perspective of a veteran who has experienced eight years of the crypto cycle, deeply analyzes the symbiotic relationship between AI and cryptocurrency, the survival rule of crossing the bear market, and the historical turning point of the industry from “barbarism” to “institutionalization.”

This legendary investor, who emerged from the Texas Hold'em poker table, started his professional poker career at the age of 16 with $50, entered the global top ten in online heads-up No-Limit Texas Hold'em at the age of 19, then made a splendid turn to Silicon Valley, successively worked at Airbnb and Earn.com (acquired by Coinbase), and finally took the helm of one of the most influential venture capital firms in the crypto industry — Dragonfly Capital, with over $5 billion in assets under management. Just a week ago, Dragonfly announced the completion of its fourth fund, raising $650 million, counterattacking against the bear market winter, once again proving its investment philosophy of “buying at the lows.”

This article is a summary of the essence of the 168X (@168X_Fortune) program — a top-tier dialogue platform that deeply connects Eastern wisdom with Western innovation, focusing on cutting-edge fields such as AI, blockchain, robotics, space technology, and biotechnology, exploring how technology, capital, and human wisdom will reshape the future of human civilization.

The End of an Era: When a Rival Leaves the Table

The interview opens with news of an industry shake-up.

Kyle Samani, Co-Founder of Multicoin Capital, announced his resignation, departing from the nearly decade-long crypto industry, and shifting focus to emerging areas such as AI, robotics, and longevity technology.

For Haseeb, this is not just news, but a personal farewell.

「Interestingly, Kyle was the first VC I met after entering the crypto world,」 he recalled, 「We both started in 2017 almost at the same time. He and I were polar opposites, disagreeing on almost everything. But he was my most respected competitor.」

Haseeb described Kyle as "an outsider": no prominent investment background, no prestigious school halo, no blessing from top institutions, 「just someone who figured things out on his own, carving out a path with personal branding and extreme contrarian thinking.」

「Seeing him leave, I feel a deep sense of melancholy,」 Haseeb confessed, 「because it feels like the youth of our generation is coming to an end. We entered this industry in our twenties, when everything was dreamy and futuristic. And now, this industry has grown up.」

We've Won Too Much: From Rebels to Policymakers

What is the sign of the industry "growing up"? Haseeb answered with a highly visual metaphor:

「Back in the day, the stablecoin market cap was only a few billion dollars, now it's 300 billion dollars. The US Treasury Secretary publicly predicted that stablecoins will reach 30 trillion dollars within ten years, accounting for 15% of the overall money supply.」

「We thought we were breaking the rules. Now, we are the ones making the rules.」

「To some extent, we've won too much,」 he said with mixed emotions. 「It's like we were a group of climbers, struggling to climb to the mountaintop. And now there are tour buses carrying tourists directly up here. Yes, we won—but seeing victory come in this way brings an indescribable mix of feelings.」

BlackRock has entered, JP Morgan has issued its own tokenized dollar. The decentralized utopia chased in youth has finally been achieved in a Wall Street-dominated way.

「When we entered the crypto world, we were chasing a crazy science fiction future. This is not the future we imagined, but it is much more successful than we imagined.」

The once crypto punks have achieved their desired "Mass Adoption," just not quite in the same script.

AI Needs Cryptocurrency: Smart Contracts are the Law Made for Machines

As AI Steals the Global Capital Market Spotlight, Has the Value Narrative of the Crypto Industry Become Outdated?

Haseeb's Answer Stands Out:

「AI is the most important technology of the 21st century, but like many technologies, it requires the support of other infrastructure. AI needs energy, AI needs a network—massive data on the network is what feeds large language models. Cryptocurrency is the same principle.」

He concretizes this intersection into a core scenario: When AI Agents begin conducting business transactions, how do they settle transactions with each other?

「Your Agent and my Agent don't use the same fiat currency, they're not in the same banking system. You're in Taiwan, I'm in the U.S., how does my Agent do business with your Agent? The answer has been there from the beginning: cryptocurrency.」

Haseeb further presents a profound insight: The true users of smart contracts are not humans, but AI.

「Think about the issues with legal contracts: I don't know which jurisdiction you're in, I don't know how to sue your Agent in court. Even if we go to court, it takes months to file, both sides hire expensive lawyers, and then it takes years to go through the legal process. But AI Agents operate much faster than the human brain—the court is designed for human speed, the Agent operates on a completely different time scale.」

「Law is random. How will the judge rule? What will the jury say? No one knows. But a smart contract says the same thing every time, as long as you can read the code. Predictability is what AI Agents need.」

This means that the crypto industry's longstanding narrative of "smart contracts replacing law" has always been difficult to implement in the human world, but it has found the most perfect application scenario in the AI Agent economy.

The Industrial Revolution Took 50 Years: Don't Think Too Aggressively About AI

Faced with speculation about whether the market is on the verge of the arrival of "Artificial Super Intelligence" (ASI), Haseeb demonstrates the calm demeanor typical of a top-tier venture capitalist:

「When ChatGPT was launched in November 2022, many people predicted that we were only a few years away from AGI. It's been almost four years now. Is this AGI? Maybe. But if it is, it's not reflected in the GDP, nor is it reflected in the unemployment rate. You walk the streets of Hong Kong, everything looks normal, no buildings are on fire, and there's no massive unemployment.」

He takes the Industrial Revolution as an example: "The Industrial Revolution was the most significant event in human economic history. But it took a full 50 years from the commercialization of the steam engine to have a measurable impact on GDP. Before that, any articles proclaiming 'the end is nigh' were just premature."

Haseeb emphasizes that no one can predict the timeline accurately. "If 'soon' means within two years? Not very likely. Within ten years? Possible. Twenty to thirty years? Almost certain. It all depends on the timeline."

"AI will certainly be a disruptive technology. But 'when' is a completely different question. Do not draw the trend line too aggressively unless you have sufficient reason to believe it is already happening."

Bear Market Survival Rule: Stay at the Table

At the end of the interview, Haseeb brings the conversation back to the current market: a crypto bear market characterized by low sentiment and shaky confidence.

He candidly acknowledges that this is a challenging time: "It's very tough for those who entered this industry out of excitement and momentum. People treat the price as a report card—if the price drops, they feel like they did something wrong. But if you stay long enough, you realize that's not true."

Haseeb points out that the market event on October 11th last year was a key turning point. On that day, U.S. President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods on Truth Social, coupled with China's just-announced rare earth export controls, global risk assets were rapidly sold off. The crypto market bore the brunt—Bitcoin plummeted 13% in one hour, Ethereum over 16%, and numerous altcoins were halved or even wiped out in minutes.

"That day, many exchanges went down, and we experienced the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history—over $19 billion in leveraged positions were force-liquidated, 1.6 million trading accounts were liquidated," Haseeb recounted. The scale of this disaster was nearly 20 times that of the 2020 COVID crash and far exceeded the liquidation volume during the 2022 FTX collapse.

"But what really puzzled people was what happened afterward," Haseeb said. "If you compare Bitcoin's price action with the Nasdaq, S&P 500 post-10/11—you see them diverging. U.S. stocks rebounded, but crypto did not follow suit. There was some fundamental shift in market dynamics, and to this day, we don't have a satisfactory explanation."

He believes that it is precisely because of the lack of a clear "why", this bear market has been particularly psychologically devastating for people.

But he is not so pessimistic about the future of the crypto market.

“The crypto market is driven by momentum, it is autocorrelated. When momentum starts in one direction, it will continue. But conversely, when the momentum of recovery starts, it will also continue.”

He concluded with a piece of wisdom brought from the poker table, which is also the core belief of his eight-year crypto career:

“The first lesson you learn in the crypto world is the importance of 'survival'.

As long as you are still at the table, you can see what will happen next.

The only way you will lose is to be eliminated.

As long as you are not eliminated, you have a seat.

As long as you have a seat, you can enjoy the feast.”

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