How Did I Make $100,000 in 3 Months on Polymarket?
Original Title: How I Made $100k Arbitraging Between Prediction Markets (Full Guide)
Original Author: @PixOnChain, Crypto Researcher
Original Translation: Deep in Motion
Abstract: Leveraging price differences between prediction markets for arbitrage, combining swift action and early exit strategies to earn risk-free profits
Editor's Note: This article details the author's strategy of earning $100k through arbitrage between prediction markets. The author utilizes price differences across platforms for the same event, locking in risk-free profits, with a focus on pricing errors in multi-outcome markets. Key steps include identifying spreads, swift action, automated monitoring, and early exits for APY optimization. The author emphasizes the importance of niche markets, volatility, and thorough rule scrutiny, providing an efficient Web3 arbitrage guide.
The following is the original content (lightly edited for readability):
Most people gamble on prediction markets.
I make money through arbitrage.
Here is my specific strategy to earn $100k from decentralized, inefficient prediction markets—completely devoid of gambling.

Step One: Understand the Rules
Prediction markets allow you to bet on real-world outcomes.
· "Will Ethereum reach $5000 by December?"
· "Will MrBeast run for president?"
· "Will Kanye West launch his own token?"
Each market has its own participant base.
Each group has its own biases.
This means that pricing for the same event on different platforms... will vary.
Herein lies the arbitrage opportunity.
If platform A's "Yes" price is 40 cents, and platform B's "No" price is 55 cents...
You can lock in a 5-cent profit regardless of the outcome.
This is arbitrage.
But there are even better opportunities...
Step 2: Find Your Edge
For me, what works well is the multi-outcome markets.
These markets are where issues are most likely to arise.
For example:
· Who will win this weekend's F1 race?
· Which party will win the UK General Election?
· Who will be the next one eliminated on the reality show?
More outcomes = higher complexity = more pricing errors.
In theory, the sum of the probabilities of all outcomes should be 100%.
In reality? I often see the market sum up to 110%.
Why? Because most platforms embed a hidden fee—the 'overround'.
Plus, many platforms let the crowd determine the odds.
This leads to lucrative yet inefficient arbitrage opportunities.
Step 3: How to Identify an Arbitrage Opportunity
The rules are as follows:
You find pricing for the same event on different platforms. Select the lowest price for each outcome. If the sum is less than 1 dollar, you've found an arbitrage opportunity.
Let me show you a real example.
Market: Who will be the next Pope?
Two platforms are running this market simultaneously.
Prices are as follows:

Polymarket/Myriad
We select the lowest price for each outcome:
· Pietro Parolin: 35.2 cents (Myriad)
· Luis Antonio Tagle: 30 cents (Polymarket)
· Others: 32.7 cents (Myriad)
· Total: 97.9 cents
You buy into all three outcomes.
One of them must prevail.
You guarantee to get back 1 dollar.
Profit: 2.1 cents per transaction = 2.1% risk-free return.
This is arbitrage.
You are not betting on who will become the Pope. You are betting on two platforms not being able to agree on the pricing of a potential candidate. When they disagree — you profit.
P.S. This is not the best opportunity, just one I found today.
Myriad has low liquidity, but two platforms still show a similar spread.
If you monitor more markets, you will find bigger opportunities.
I usually only enter when the Annual Percentage Yield (APY) is above 60% (APY = (spread / settlement days) × 365).
The market spread is 2.1%, with a settlement time of 29 days:
(0.021 / 29) × 365 ≈ 26.4% APY
Not good enough for me.
Locking funds for a month for only 26% APY? Pass.
But if the same spread settles in 7 days?
That's over 100% APY — I'm in.
How to find these high APY opportunities?
Step Four: Race Against Time
Predicting market arbitrage is a game of timing. Once a price discrepancy occurs, you usually have only minutes, not hours.
· Someone posts a rumor.
· One market updates its price.
· Another market lags behind.
This delay is your entire advantage. If possible — automate this part.
At the beginning, I had 7 platform tabs open simultaneously. I refreshed like a maniac. Used price alerts on Discord, Telegram, Twitter.
Sometimes, I could spot the spread just by muscle memory. The faster you act, the more you earn. Hesitate for 5 minutes, and the spread is gone.
The best spread I caught was 18%, and the trade volume was substantial.
Make sure you have enough liquidity available to deploy in each market and understand all fees.
Step Five: Early Exit
Most people wait for the outcome to be revealed. I don't. I've already made most of my profit when the outcome is unknown.
Assume I bought all outcomes at 94 cents. This locks in a 6-cent spread. One of the outcomes will pay out at $1.
But I don't have to wait.
If the market tightens — those same shares can now be sold for 98 cents or 99 cents collectively — I exit.
This is only effective when all outcome prices remain stable.
If one outcome skyrockets and the others plummet, there is no opportunity to exit.
So I need to monitor the entire portfolio. I exit when the total value goes up.
This can significantly increase your APY and allow you to rotate between different markets more quickly.
Additional Tips
· Look for overlapping events (e.g., "Trump wins the 2024 election" and "Republican victory") — hidden arbitrage opportunities are right there.
· Target small markets — more pricing errors, less competition.
· Use less popular platforms — more spreads, bigger advantages, plus potential airdrop rewards.
· Carefully read settlement rules — one word can change the outcome.
· Always triple-check the order book and your buy-in price. Include all fees in your calculations.
It took me 2.5 months to earn $100,000.
Some weeks had no opportunities. Some weeks were non-stop busy.
The larger the market fluctuation, the bigger the spread.
So if the market is quiet, don't rush, keep looking. There will always be another mispriced market.
Original tweet link: Tweet Link
You may also like

Ray Dalio's new article: The world is entering a war cycle

IOSG: When Fintech Meets Crypto Native: The Next Decade of Digital Finance

They knew in advance that Trump would tweet about a ceasefire, entered with $20k, and exited with $400k.

The biggest bottleneck in DeFi development

CZ Memoir Released: Reveals a Large Amount of Industry Insider Information, Prompting Intense Rebuttal from Xu Mingxing

a16z: After securities are on the blockchain, why will intermediary institutions be replaced by code?

XRP Tokyo Is Here: What We Learn and What’s Next for XRP Price
Key Takeaways: Ripple’s 2025 XRP Tokyo event highlights a projected $33 trillion on-chain stablecoin volume by 2026. Significant…

Solana’s Future: Navigating the $285M Hack, Rug Pulls, and Milei Libra Scandal
Key Takeaways: Multiple Crises: Solana faces a $285 million hack, allegations of rug pulls, and the Milei Libra…

BTC USD Faces Tension: Markets React to Trump’s Dire Warning
Key Takeaways: Bitcoin’s price drops sharply below $70,000 amid geopolitical tensions, playing off Trump’s dramatic 8 PM ultimatum…

Bitcoin Price Surge: Ceasefire Sparks Optimism Hits $71K
Key Takeaways: After the US-Iran ceasefire announcement, Bitcoin surged beyond $71,000, marking its highest in a month. A…

Ethereum Price Forecast: Record $180 Billion Stablecoin Supply Marks Buyers’ Return
Key Takeaways: Ethereum’s stablecoin supply has surged to a record $180 billion, marking a 150% increase over the…

Emerging Evidence Links Argentina’s Milei to LIBRA Crypto Scandal
Key Takeaways: Evidence unveiled by Argentina’s federal prosecutors links President Javier Milei to the LIBRA token through call…

US Spot Bitcoin ETFs See Surge as BTC Nears $70K; LiquidChain and Layer-3 DeFi Rise
Key Takeaways: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $471 million in a single day, moving BTC closer to the…

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Decoupling from Tech Stocks, Shaped by Geopolitics and AI Turmoil
Key Takeaways: Bitcoin is decoupling from tech stocks as geopolitical tensions and AI crises reshape the market, currently…

Chaos Labs Departure Leaves Aave Without Risk Management Amidst Governance Conflict
Key Takeaways: Aave, with a $50 billion TVL, is currently operating without a risk manager due to Chaos…

Grayscale Ethereum ETF Staking: A New Catalyst for $5,700?
Key Takeaways: Grayscale’s Ethereum Staking ETF introduces a yield-bearing structure that could significantly reshape investor sentiment. Ethereum’s price…

Polygon Crypto Enhances Finality Through the Giugliano Hardfork
Key Takeaways: Polygon’s Giugliano hardfork is operational on the mainnet, effectively reducing transaction finality by 2 seconds. The…

Senate’s Three-Week Deadline: Ripple XRP and the CLARITY Act’s Critical Moment
Key Takeaways: The Senate Banking Committee’s decision on the CLARITY Act in late April could define XRP’s future…
