Most crypto funds believe that Bitcoin has not yet bottomed out, and the market bottom may form between the end of Q3 and the beginning of Q4

Most institutional investors believe that Bitcoin still has room for further decline, and the overall market sentiment is cautious. Macroeconomic uncertainty, tightening liquidity, ETF fund outflows, and the shift of funds towards areas like AI may still exert pressure on BTC prices. David Grider, a partner at Finality Capital, stated that the firm expects the market bottom in this cycle may not appear until the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2026, and believes that Bitcoin may complete its bottoming process in the range of $45,000 to $55,000. Even among some investors who believe the market is close to the bottom, there is a general expectation of no strong rebound in the short term.

Research shows that most funds are currently increasing cash positions, reducing directional risk exposure, and adopting more market-neutral, hedging, and derivative strategies to cope with volatility. Meanwhile, institutional funds continue to focus on fundamentally strong areas such as DeFi, AI, and tokenized assets, rather than purely allocating to Bitcoin. Institutions generally believe that the high interest rate environment, liquidity contraction, geopolitical risks, and the flow of funds towards growth sectors like AI are the main downside risks facing the current market. In addition, some funds have also identified the leverage financing model of Strategy and the development of quantum computing as emerging risk factors in this cycle.

Regarding the year-end trend, the funds surveyed did not provide a Bitcoin target price above $100,000. Some institutions expect BTC to fluctuate in the range of $40,000 to $80,000 within the year and believe that improvements in interest rate cut expectations, a recovery in liquidity, and progress on the U.S. CLARITY Act may become important catalysts for market recovery.

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