Serenity: Institutions Reassess Humanoid Robot Business, China's Production Capacity May Reach 100,000 Units by Year-End

Serenity posted on platform X that a report from IBK Research released last month indicated that Boston Dynamics plans to achieve an annual production capacity of 30,000 units by 2028. Meanwhile, the overall production capacity of Chinese robot manufacturers is expected to reach 100,000 units by the end of 2026, which may prompt institutions to reassess the humanoid robot business. The American camp includes Tesla, Figure, Apptronik, and Agility Robotics, while Boston Dynamics is controlled by South Korea's Hyundai Group. Major Chinese manufacturers include Yushu Technology, Fourier Intelligence, Zhiyuan Robotics, UBTECH, and Xiaopeng Robotics. European companies include Neura, Pal Robotics, Wandercraft, and Oversonic. IBK Research forecasts that Atlas shipments will reach 11,290 units by 2028, increasing to 20,000, 30,000, 40,000, and 50,000 units in 2029 to 2032, respectively. Serenity questions this linear growth model, suggesting that the actual growth curve is more likely to exhibit an S-shaped pattern, with expected shipments of 15,000 to 20,000 units in 2028, increasing to 40,000 to 70,000 units in 2029, and further rising to 90,000 to 140,000 units in 2030.