Stocks Supported by Hopes of US-China Trade Talks and a Buoyant US Labor Market

By: barchartnews|2025/05/02 23:45:01

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +1.15%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +1.00%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.30%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM25) are up +1.26%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM25) are up +1.38%. Stock indexes today are trading higher, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrials posting 1-month highs and the Nasdaq 100 posting a 5-week high. Stocks are climbing today on a possible thaw in the US-China trade stalemate. China’s Commerce Ministry is assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US. Today, it said, “The US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start trade talks with China, and we are currently evaluating this.” Stocks added to their gains on signs the US labor market remains resilient with slack wage pressures after April payrolls and hourly earnings rose less than expected. Also, US Mar factory orders posted their biggest increase in 8 months.US Apr nonfarm payrolls rose +177,000, stronger than expectations of +138,000, although Mar nonfarm payrolls were revised lower by 43,000 jobs to +185,000 from the previously reported +228,000. The Apr unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%, in line with expectations.US Apr average hourly earnings rose +0.2% m/m and +3.8% y/y, slightly weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.9% y/y.US Mar factory orders rose +4.3% m/m, the largest increase in 8 months.The weakness in some megacap technology stocks is limiting the upside in the overall market. Apple is down more than -3% after it reported falling China sales and warned that tariffs will increase costs. Also, Amazon.com is down -0.60% after it gave a weaker-than-expected outlook for operating income and said it is bracing for a tougher business climate. The markets are discounting the chances at 3% for a -25 bp rate cut after the May 6-7 FOMC meeting.Q1 earnings reporting season is in full swing. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, the market consensus is for Q1 year-over-year earnings growth of +6.7% for the S&P 500 stocks, down from expectations of +11.1% in early November. So far, of the 303 companies in the S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results, 78% have beaten estimates. Full-year 2025 corporate profits for the S&P 500 are seen rising +9.4%, down from the forecast of +12.5% in early January. Overseas stock markets today are higher. The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a 1-month high and is up +2.05%. China’s Shanghai Composite was closed for the Labor Day holiday. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 rallied to a 5-week high and closed up +1.04%.Interest RatesJune 10-year T-notes (ZNM25) today are down -15 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +6.7 bp to 4.285%. June T-notes today are under pressure from a larger-than-expected increase in US Apr nonfarm payrolls. Also, a possible thaw in the US-China trade war has curbed safe-haven demand for T-notes after China’s Commerce Ministry said it is assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US. Today’s stock rally has also reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes.Losses in T-notes are contained by benign US wage pressures after Apr average hourly earnings rose less than expected. T-notes also have carryover support from today’s rally in 10-year UK gilts to a 3-1/2 week high. European government bond yields today are mixed. The 10-year German bund yield is up +6.8 bp to 2.512%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 3-1/2 week low of 4.408% and is down -0.8 bp to 4.473%.The Eurozone Apr core CPI was revised upward to 2.7% y/y from the previously reported 2.4% y/y.The Eurozone Apr S&P manufacturing PMI was revised upward by +0.3 to 49.0 from the previously reported 48.7.The Eurozone Mar unemployment rate was unchanged at a record low 6.2%.Swaps are discounting the chances at 97% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the June 5 policy meeting.US Stock MoversChip stocks are rallying today and are giving the broader market a boost. Lam Research (LRCX) and ON Semiconductor (ON) are up more than +4%. Also, Applied Materials (AMAT), Broadcom (AVGO), Microchip Technology (MCHP), KLA Corp (KLAC), GlobalFoundries (GFS), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Texas Instruments (TXN), and Micron Technology (MU) are up more than +3%. In addition, Nvidia (NVDA), Intel (INTC), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Qualcomm (QCOM) are up more than +2%Travel stocks are moving higher today on signs of economic strength after US Apr nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected. Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) are up more than +6%. Also, United Airlines Holdings (UAL) is up more than +5%, and Southwest Airlines (LUV) and Carnival (CCL) are up more than +3%.Dexcom (DXCM) is up more than +14% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q1 revenue of $1.04 billion, better than the consensus of $1.02 billion. Duolingo (DUOL) is up more than +14% after boosting its full-year bookings estimate to $1.12 billion- $1.13 billion from a previous estimate of $1.08 billion-$1.10 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.09 billion. Exact Sciences (EXAS) is up more than +7% after reporting Q1 revenue of $706.8 million, better than the consensus of $688.7 million, and raised its full-year revenue forecast to $3.07 billion-$3.12 billion from a previous estimate of $3.03 billion-$3.09 billion, stronger than the consensus of $3.06 billion. Iron Mountain (IRM) is up more than +4% after boosting its full-year revenue forecast to $6.74 billion-$6.89 billion from a previous forecast of $6.65 billion-$6.80 billion.US-listed Chinese stocks are climbing after China’s Commerce Ministry is assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US. As a result, PDD Holdings (PDD), JD.com (JD), Baidu (BIDU), and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) are up more than +2%. Apple (AAPL) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q2 greater China revenue of $16.00 billion, weaker than the consensus of $16.83 billion. Amazon.com (AMZN) is down more than -1% after forecasting Q2 operating income of $13.0 billion to $17.5 billion, weaker than the consensus of $17.82 billion. Block (XYZ) is down more than -22% after reporting Q1 net revenue of $5.77 billion, weaker than the consensus of $6.22 billion, and cut its full-year adjusted operating income estimate to $1.9 billion from a previous estimate of $2.1 billion, below the consensus of $2.12 billion. Hologic (HOLX) is down more than -8% after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $4.15-$4.25 from a previous forecast of $4.25-$4.35. Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) is down more than -7% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after announcing a delay in releasing the Grand Theft Auto VI game. Atlassian (TEAM) is down more than -7% after forecasting Q4 revenue of $1.35 billion to $1.36 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $1.36 billion. Motorola Solutions (MSI) is down more than -6% after forecasting Q2 adjusted EPS of $3.32-$3.37, weaker than the consensus of $3.47.Earnings Reports (5/2/2025)AES Corp/The (AES), Apollo Global Management Inc (APO), Cboe Global Markets Inc (CBOE), Chevron Corp (CVX), Cigna Group/The (CI), DaVita Inc (DVA), DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD), Eaton Corp PLC (ETN), Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM), Franklin Resources Inc (BEN), Monster Beverage Corp (MNST), T Rowe Price Group Inc (TROW). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

What is XRP: XRP is a digital asset built for fast, low-cost international payments. It runs on the XRP Ledger and is used by Ripple for its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service. Unlike Bitcoin, XRP settles transactions in 3-5 seconds with near-zero fees.Why is XRP Dropping: XRP is not actively dropping, but it is struggling to rise. On the monthly chart, XRP has seen six consecutive months of decline. Currently, the price faces an additional supply wall at $1.45. About 1.24 billion XRP were bought in that range, and those holders sell when the price approaches, creating selling pressure that prevents a recovery.Will XRP Go Up: Potentially yes. XRP is trading near $1.43 and showing its best weekly performance since September 2025. If the price breaks above the $1.45 resistance, analysts expect a move toward $1.90, supported by strong institutional demand.Is XRP a Good Investment: The answer is not simple. Short-term traders may see opportunity in the coming volatility spike. Long-term investors face a bigger question that depends on one key regulatory event. However, the data reveals a surprising signal that most retail buyers are missing right now. To understand whether XRP is a smart buy or a trap at $1.43, you will need to read the full analysis below.What is XRP? A Digital Asset for Global Settlement

Before analyzing the charts, it is crucial to understand the asset in question. What is XRP? Unlike Bitcoin, which was designed as a decentralized digital gold, XRP operates on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). It was created to facilitate fast, low-cost international payments. Traditional bank transfers take days and incur high fees. XRP transactions settle in 3-5 seconds, costing fractions of a penny.

Ripple, the company associated with XRP, uses this asset for its "On-Demand Liquidity" (ODL) service. Banks and financial institutions use ODL to source liquidity during cross-border transactions without pre-funding accounts. This utility is the primary driver for institutional interest. Recently, the network hit a milestone of over 8 million active wallets, signaling growing usage despite recent price stagnation . Furthermore, Ripple is proactively preparing for the future, releasing a four-stage roadmap to make the XRPL "quantum-resistant," aiming to secure the ledger against future quantum computing threats by 2028 .

XRP Price Analysis: The Battle for $1.45

The XRP price trend over the last month tells a story of exhaustion followed by cautious recovery. On the monthly chart, XRP experienced six consecutive months of decline. However, April shows signs of a bottoming process. Weekly charts reinforce this view: after four weeks of lower closes, the last two weeks have seen small rebounds.

According to data from April 22, 2026, XRP is trading at approximately $1.44. Over the last seven days, XRP has outperformed both Bitcoin and Ethereum, rising 6.7% while the broader market rose only 3.2%. Spot trading volume surged 23% to $3.79 billion, and derivative markets saw $40 billion in futures volume on a single day.

Despite this, the price remains 60% below its July 2025 high of $3.65. The current technical picture shows a "low volatility grind" higher. The 20-day EMA is at $1.3924, and the 50-day EMA is at $1.4119, both acting as support . However, the immediate hurdle is the $1.45 resistance level. This price point has rejected every rally attempt in 2026.

Why is XRP Dropping? And Will XRP Go Up?

The primary reason for the recent "drop" (or lack of upward momentum) is not active selling, but rather the "supply wall." Data indicates that roughly 1.24 billion XRP tokens were purchased by investors in the $1.45 to $1.47 range. These investors have been waiting months to "break even." Every time the price approaches $1.45, these holders sell to exit their positions, creating a massive wall that retail buying cannot easily absorb.

However, the underlying momentum is shifting. Analysts suggest a xrp volatility spike imminent because the absorption capacity of buyers is increasing. Historically, when exchange reserves are high but the price refuses to drop significantly, it signals that buyers are absorbing the supply. The price has held above $1.39 despite the overhang, which is a sign of relative strength.

So, will XRP go up? Yes, potentially. But it needs a catalyst, if the price closes a daily candle above $1.45. If that happens, the next targets are $1.60 to $1.65, and eventually $1.90 .

XRP Exchange Netflow and XRP ETF Netflow: A Tale of Two Markets

The current market dynamic is best understood by looking at two opposing data streams: XRP Exchange netflow and XRP ETF flows.

Exchange Dynamics (Retail / Whales):

Data shows a complex pattern of "large inflows and increasing reserves." Recently, a Ripple-associated wallet moved 75 million XRP (approx. $108 million) to Coinbase. This initially looks like a dump, but context matters. These transfers are likely to provide liquidity for Ripple’s ODL business, not necessarily spot market selling. However, the result is that exchange reserves have climbed to 2.76 billion XRP .

The Good News: While reserves are high, the rate of increase is slowing. Specifically, "whale" transfers to exchanges have dropped 98% from their April 11 peak. The Binance reserve has slightly decreased from 27.7 to 27.6 billion. The aggressive selling from large holders appears to have stopped.

Institutional Dynamics (ETF):

While whales were sending coins to exchanges, institutions were buying XRP ETF products. XRP ETF net flow is strongly positive.

US-listed XRP ETFs recorded four consecutive days of inflows totaling $38.86 million recently .The weekly inflow for mid-April hit $119.6 million, a multi-month high .Cumulative net inflows stand at $12.8 billion, with Assets Under Management (AUM) at roughly $10.8 billion.Analyzing the Divergence: Why Both Flows Are Positive

It seems contradictory that exchange reserves are high (suggesting selling) while ETFs are buying (suggesting buying). However, this phenomenon reveals the current market structure.

Different Investor Profiles: The exchange inflows likely come from short-term traders, market makers, or Ripple itself providing ODL liquidity. These are "hot" coins ready to be sold. The ETF inflows represent "sticky" capital. Institutions buying ETFs are typically long-term holders (LTHs) or asset managers who do not day-trade. They are removing liquidity from the spot market by buying through custodians.The "De-risking" Trade: Sophisticated funds might be engaging in basis trading. They buy the ETF (taking a long position) while simultaneously shorting XRP futures or selling spot inventory to capture the funding rate. This keeps the price stable while volume increases.Absorption: The most likely scenario is that the market is simply absorbing the excess supply. The fact that the price is stable ($1.43) and not collapsing to $1.20 despite 2.76 billion coins sitting on exchanges is a massive win for the bulls. The ETF inflows are acting as a sponge, soaking up the selling pressure from the ODL wallets.The Regulatory Catalyst: The SEC and the CLARITY Act

Fundamentally, the recent price action cannot be separated from regulation. For years, the primary answer was the SEC lawsuit. That narrative is dying.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently praised SEC Chair Paul Atkins as "a breath of fresh air and sanity" . This regulatory thaw is critical. The SEC is reportedly considering dropping the long-standing lawsuit, and five XRP ETF applications are awaiting review.

The major catalyst on the horizon is the CLARITY Act. A Senate markup is expected before the end of April. Standard Chartered analysts project that if the bill advances, it could unlock $4 to $8 billion in institutional flows . Polymarket gives the bill a 60-66% chance of passing in 2026. If the CLARITY Act classifies XRP as a non-security (commodity), the institutional floodgates will open, likely overwhelming the $1.45 supply wall instantly.

Is XRP a Good Investment in 2026?

Given all this data, is XRP a good investment? The answer depends entirely on your risk tolerance and time horizon.

The Bull Case (Why it is a good investment): The risk/reward ratio is asymmetrical to the upside. The price is near multi-year lows relative to its utility. Whale selling has stopped, ETF demand is rising, and the network is expanding (8 million wallets, quantum resistance roadmap). If the CLARITY Act passes, XRP could realistically trade between $1.60 and $1.80 in the short term, with a potential run to $3.00+ if the lawsuit is officially dropped.The Risk Case (Why it is NOT a good investment): There is a clear resistance wall at $1.45. If the CLARITY Act fails or is delayed past May (due to midterm election dynamics), the "buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamic could reverse. If the price fails to break $1.45 and loses support at $1.33, a drop back to $1.15 is technically possible .

Verdict: XRP is a speculative buy for traders looking for a volatility spike. It is a hold for current investors. For new investors, it is only a good investment if you believe in regulatory clarity within the next 30 days. Technically, waiting for a confirmed break above $1.55 (to avoid the fakeout) is safer than buying at $1.43.

FAQ

Q: Will XRP go up if the CLARITY Act passes?

A: Yes, historically. Analysts predict that if the CLARITY Act passes, signaling that XRP is a commodity, it would remove the regulatory overhang. This could trigger a surge in institutional buying, pushing the price from the current $1.43 range to test the $1.80 - $2.00 resistance levels quickly.

Q: Why is XRP dropping when Bitcoin is going up?

A: XRP has specific supply dynamics. Unlike Bitcoin, which has a fixed supply issuance, XRP faces periodic sell-pressure from Ripple's treasury wallets used to fund ODL (liquidity) services. Additionally, the $1.45 "break-even" wall causes XRP to drop relative to BTC when short-term traders exit.

Q: Is a volatility spike imminent for XRP?

A: Yes. The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are squeezing. The price is stuck between support at $1.33 and resistance at $1.45. Historically, when XRP volume surges 23% in a week (as it did on April 21), it precedes a violent move. The direction depends on whether the $1.45 resistance breaks.

Q: What is the XRP ETF netflow status?

A: As of late April 2026, XRP ETFs are seeing positive netflows. The US ETFs recorded a single week inflow of $119.6 million in mid-April. Cumulative inflows are strong at $12.8 billion, indicating that institutions are accumulating during this dip, which is a long-term bullish signal for price stabilization.

Q: Is XRP a good investment for beginners?

A: XRP is less volatile than "meme coins" but more volatile than Bitcoin. For beginners, it is a moderate-risk investment. Its value is tied to real utility (bank payments). However, beginners should wait to see if the price can close a weekly candle above $1.55 before entering, to avoid buying into the current resistance wall.

Disclaimer: None of the information in this article constitutes, or is intended to constitute, investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research.

About WEEX

Founded in 2018, WEEX has developed into a global crypto exchange with over 6.2 million users across more than 150 countries. The platform emphasizes security, liquidity, and usability, providing over 1,200 spot trading pairs and offering up to 400x leverage in crypto futures trading. In addition to the traditional spot and derivatives markets, WEEX is expanding rapidly in the AI era — delivering real-time AI news, empowering users with AI trading tools, and exploring innovative trade-to-earn models that make intelligent trading more accessible to everyone. Its 1,000 BTC Protection Fund further strengthens asset safety and transparency, while features such as copy trading and advanced trading tools allow users to follow professional traders and experience a more efficient, intelligent trading journey.

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Is XRP a Good Investment in 2026? Why Is It Stuck at $1.45

TL; DR