This Week's Macro Outlook: Trump's Middle East Decision, China-U.S. Summit, Market Closures in Asia

This week, global markets will digest the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate hike since 2023 and reprice for a higher and longer interest rate path. Trump is expected to meet with Gulf countries during the United Nations General Assembly and make significant decisions on whether to escalate strikes against Iran; air raid sirens have sounded again in the Saudi capital, with oil market risk premiums being tugged by actual supply recovery. The U.S. will release preliminary data for September manufacturing and services PMI, weekly changes in ADP employment numbers, initial jobless claims, August new home sales, durable goods orders, and Michigan consumer confidence; Europe will announce September PMI for multiple countries, and Germany will also release the September IFO Business Climate Index. Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to the U.S. for economic and trade consultations from September 19 to 23, and developments related to the China-U.S. summit are worth noting; the Swiss National Bank will announce its interest rate decision, and RBA Governor Philip Lowe will also give a speech. Crude oil investors should pay attention to API and EIA inventory data, as well as the NYMEX October crude oil futures roll-over. The Japanese stock market will be closed on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday for holidays, while the South Korean stock market will be closed on Thursday and Friday for the Chuseok holiday. China's A-shares and Taiwan's stock market will be closed on Friday, while the Hong Kong stock market will operate normally but with southbound and northbound trading suspended. On Sunday, New Zealand will enter daylight saving time, causing financial market trading and economic data release times to be one hour earlier than in standard time.

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