Week 4 On-chain Data: Market Relatively Unstable, But Off-chain Institutional Funds Still Showing Buying Interest

Original Title: "As the Lunar New Year Approaches, Where Should We Go After the Big Shakeout? | WTR 2.3"
Source: WTR Research Institute

Weekly Recap

This week from January 27th to February 3rd, Bitcoin's price reached a high near $106,457 and a low close to $91,231, with a fluctuation range of about 14%. Looking at the on-chain distribution chart, there was a large volume of transactions around 95,000, which may provide some support or resistance.

• Analysis:
1. 60000-68000 approximately 1.68 million coins;
2. 90000-100000 approximately 2.42 million coins;
• The probability of not breaking below 87,000-91,000 in the short term is 85%;
• The probability of not breaking above 110,000-115,000 in the short term is 69%.

Important News - Economic Aspect

Economic News

1. On February 3rd, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing the Treasury and Commerce Departments to establish a sovereign wealth fund, which could be used for acquiring assets like TikTok.

2. Trump announced that the planned 25% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and Canada scheduled for February 4th would be postponed for a month in response to the concerns raised by these countries.

3. On February 3rd, U.S. President Trump stated that the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged last week "was the right decision under the current circumstances."

4. Due to tariff policy impacts, the U.S. stock market experienced volatility. On February 3rd, the S&P 500 Index fell by 0.5%, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped by 0.28%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.75%.

5. Goldman Sachs predicts that the U.S. economy will achieve 2.5% growth in 2025, surpassing market consensus expectations for the third consecutive year and outperforming other developed economies.

Crypto Ecosystem News

1. U.S. Establishes Cryptocurrency Working Group: On January 23, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a cryptocurrency working group tasked with proposing new digital asset regulations and exploring the possibility of creating a national cryptocurrency reserve.

2. EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) Officially Takes Effect: In January 2025, the EU officially implemented the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) to provide a secure, transparent, and trustworthy regulatory framework for the digital asset market, promoting market stability and investor protection.

3. Saudi Arabia Cryptocurrency Policy Interpretation: On February 4, 2025, Web3Caff published an article analyzing Saudi Arabia's regulatory policy on cryptocurrency, pointing out that Saudi Arabia is transitioning from a conservative stance to actively embracing it, with increasing emphasis on cryptocurrency tax compliance issues.

4. On February 4, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of Thailand announced the launch of a blockchain-based digital token trading platform.

5. U.S. President Trump issued an executive order to create the U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund. Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis hinted that this may mean the U.S. will purchase Bitcoin.

Long-term Insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull Market/Bear Market/Structural Change/Neutral State
Mid-term Exploration: Used to analyze the current stage we are in, how long it will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term Observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the likelihood of a certain event occurring in a certain direction under certain assumptions

Long-term Insight

• Cryptocurrency ETF Reserve Net Inflows
• Long-Term Investor Structure
• Exchange Large Net Transfers

(Below Image Cryptocurrency ETF Reserve Net Inflows)

Cryptocurrency ETF net inflows, from this perspective, indicate that offshore capital and U.S. institutional capital still have buying intentions.

(Below Image Long-Term Investor Structure)

Long-term participant holding ratio is around 40%, and the market is slightly unstable.

(Below Image Exchange Large Net Transfers)

Exchange large net transfers show that there have been quite a few large fund outflows recently, meaning buying funds. This indicates that the crypto whales internally remain relatively bullish on future prices.

Mid-term Exploration

• Liquidity Supply Volume
• Whale Composite Score
• ETH Exchange Trend Net Inflows
• BTC Exchange Trend Net Inflows
• Long-Term Participant Supply Percentage
• High-Weight Sell Pressure Annualized Structure

(Below Image Liquidity Supply Volume)

The recent decrease in liquidity supply may indicate a partial liquidity shortage within the market. In a low-volume environment, this situation may also lead to larger price fluctuations, possibly due to an imbalance in supply and demand between buyers and sellers.

(Whale Comprehensive Score Chart Below)

The whale's recent score has been unstable, fluctuating between "Very High" and "Very Low." Internal disagreements among whales may also be a reason for the recent significant volatility.

(ETH Exchange Net Headroom Trend Chart Below)

ETH's exchange net headroom has also experienced significant fluctuations recently, possibly indicating activity from a group engaged in targeted selling. It has currently returned to levels seen before the sell-off.

(BTC Exchange Net Headroom Trend Chart Below)

BTC's hodled coins continue to increase, indicating a significant demand within the market.

(Long-Term Participant Supply Ratio Chart Below)

The supply ratio of long-term participants is gradually decreasing. When looking at the structure of long-term versus short-term participants, the increasing short-term active supply within the market may lead to a higher amount of coins available for sale. However, based on the BTC Exchange Net Headroom Trend, the potential selling pressure within exchanges currently appears to be low, implying that the impact of long-term and short-term chip exchanges has not yet affected the market.

(High-Weighted Selling Pressure Annualized Structure Chart Below)

The high-weighted selling pressure is slowly decreasing. If it can be reduced to the blue zone, the impact of large-scale selling on the market may diminish.

Short-Term Observations

• Derivative Risk Factor
• Options Intent-to-Trade Ratio
• Derivatives Trading Volume
• Options Implied Volatility
• Profit and Loss Transfer Volume
• New Addresses and Active Addresses
• Exchange Net Headroom for Sugar Trading
• Exchange Net Headroom for Auntie Trading
• High-Weighted Selling Pressure
• Global Buying Power Status
• Stablecoin Exchange Net Headroom
• Off-Chain Exchange Data

Derivative Rating: The risk factor is close to the green zone, indicating a decrease in derivative risk.

(Derivatives Risk Factor Graph)

The risk factor has shifted from red to near the neutral green area, and the long liquidation is mostly completed. This week, the market is expected to transition to consolidation or liquidation of short positions.

(Option Intent Transaction Ratio Graph)

The put/call ratio is at a low level, and the trading volume is moderate.

(Derivatives Trading Volume Graph)

The market downturn has led to an increase in derivatives trading volume.

(Option Implied Volatility Graph)

The option implied volatility has experienced some short-term fluctuations.

Sentiment Rating: Neutral

(Profit-Loss Transfer Volume Graph)

For BTC, the recent decline has not caused real panic selling. Given the current price level and the absence of particularly extreme conditions, it is difficult for the market to experience a significant panic sell-off (orange line). Additionally, the market's positive sentiment (depressed) continues to remain relatively low. Overall, this state indicates a market more characterized by consolidation.

(New and Active Addresses Graph)

New and active addresses are at a moderate to low level.

Spot and Selling Pressure Structure Rating: BTC is in a state of significant outflow accumulation, while ETH still experiences significant inflow accumulation.

(Bitter Orange Exchange Net Inflow Graph)

BTC exchange net inflows continue to see significant outflow accumulation.

(Ethereum Exchange Net Inflow Graph)

ETH exchange net inflows saw significant inflows last week, and the inflow chips have not yet been digested.

(Heavy Selling Pressure Graph)

The market experienced heavy selling pressure this week, but it has since been alleviated.

Buy Pressure Rating: Global buy pressure is in a weakening state this week, while stablecoin buy pressure remains stable compared to last week.

(See below Global Buy Pressure Status)

After a brief recovery, the current buy pressure is once again in a weakening state.

(See below USDT Exchange Net Flow)

Stablecoin buy pressure remains stable compared to last week.

Off-chain Transaction Data Rating: Buying interest at 90000; Selling interest at 100000.

(See below Coinbase Off-chain Data)

Buying interest is around 90000; selling interest is around 100000 to 110000.

(See below Binance Off-chain Data)

Buying interest is around 90000; selling interest is around 100000 to 110000.

(See below Bitfinex Off-chain Data)

Buying interest is around 90000; selling interest is around 110000.

Weekly Summary:

News Summary:

1. From a macro news perspective, we are currently at a key point in a non-typical economic cycle, where trends like artificial intelligence disruption are shaping industries and global trends.

2. In the US stock capital markets, there is a need to focus on opportunities brought about by transformations with more technological support.

3. Optimism remains relatively strong for the next two quarters in the crypto market.

On-chain Long-term Insights:

1. ETFs indicate that US offshore institutional funds still have a buying tendency;
2. Looking at the proportion of long-term investors, the market is relatively unstable;
3. Crypto whales are still positive about the future.

• Market Sentiment:
Unstable Surge.

On-chain Mid-term Exploration:

1. Current slight decline in liquidity, potentially indicating supply-demand imbalance;
2. Whales still have divergent views;
3. Recent traces of targeted selling of ETH, with the current balance returning to normal levels;
4. Continued accumulation demand for BTC;
5. Decrease in long-term hodler participation rate;
6. Decrease in selling pressure from large holders.

• Market Sentiment:
Slowing Down, Oscillating
Decrease in on-chain spot pressure, the pace has slowed down, and potential short-term abnormal value changes should be monitored.

On-chain Short-term Observation:

1. The risk index is close to the green zone, reducing derivative risk;
2. New active addresses are at a relatively low level;
3. Market sentiment rating: Neutral;
4. Overall trend of net flows on exchanges shows BTC in a state of significant outflows accumulation, while ETH still experiences significant inflows accumulation;
5. Global buying power is in a weakening state, stablecoin buying power is consistent with last week;
6. Off-chain transaction data indicates buying interest at 90,000 and selling interest at 100,000;
7. There is an 85% probability of short-term support not breaking below 87,000–91,000; with a 69% probability of short-term resistance not breaking above 110,000–115,000.

• Market Sentiment:
Regarding BTC, market sentiment remains neutral, and this recent dip has not triggered substantial panic selling from weak hands. Observing that on-chain chips are still relatively "diamond hands." It is expected that this week may see a slight liquidation of short positions in derivatives or manifest as a consolidation pattern on the chart, with a low probability of a further significant drop.

Risk Warning: The above is all market discussion and exploration and does not constitute directional investment advice; please take a cautious approach and guard against market black swan risks.

This article is contributed content and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.