MSCI has not confirmed that Strategy or Metaplanet will be removed from its stock indexes. Its current official action is a consultation on whether non-operating companies should remain eligible for the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes, with results expected on or before October 16, 2026, and any resulting changes proposed for the November 2026 Index Review. ChainCatcher linked that review to Bitcoin treasury companies including Strategy and Metaplanet.

MSCI Is Reviewing Non-Operating Companies, Not Confirming Immediate Removals

MSCI’s primary document is a consultation on whether non-operating companies should be included in its Global Investable Market Indexes, not a final deletion notice for Strategy or Metaplanet. The consultation concerns companies whose main activities are investment-oriented rather than operational, in indexes that MSCI says are intended to measure operating companies.

This broader framing matters because it is not simply a confirmed purge of Bitcoin treasury companies. In a January 6, 2026 announcement, MSCI said it would not proceed with its earlier proposal concerning digital asset treasury companies for the February 2026 Index Review. Instead, it said it would launch a wider consultation on non-operating companies. The current review therefore appears to be a broader eligibility question that could affect some digital-asset treasury companies, rather than an already executed company-specific removal.

ChainCatcher reported that Strategy, Metaplanet and other digital-asset treasury companies could be classified as non-operational under the proposal. However, the supplied primary MSCI material supports the broader rule review, not a confirmed final list of companies that have already been excluded.

When Any Index Exclusion Could Actually Take Effect

MSCI said consultation results are expected on or before October 16, 2026, while any resulting changes are proposed for the November 2026 Index Review. The expected results date is therefore not the same as the date when benchmark-driven trading would necessarily take place.

Under the official timetable, the key distinction is between a consultation outcome and a subsequent constituent change. The primary MSCI document supports the October 16 deadline and the November review window, but does not confirm a November 30 implementation date. Strategy’s own response page outlines a possible sequence in which constituent changes would be announced on November 11 and take effect on December 1 if the rule is adopted. However, those dates are presented by the company rather than confirmed by MSCI in the supplied material.

For investors asking when passive selling might actually occur, the supported answer is that it would come after the consultation result itself. The practical trigger would be a follow-on index review or constituent-change step, not the publication of the consultation outcome alone.

What the $2.8 Billion and $8.8 Billion Estimates Mean

The widely cited $2.8 billion and $8.8 billion figures are conditional JPMorgan estimates of potential passive selling in Strategy shares if index exclusions occur. They are not completed flows, nor do they mean Strategy would have to sell Bitcoin.

ChainCatcher, citing JPMorgan, said passive funds tracking MSCI indexes could be forced to sell about $2.8 billion of MSTR shares if Strategy is excluded. It also said potential outflows could rise to $8.8 billion if other index providers adopt similar treatment. These figures describe a benchmark-rebalancing scenario affecting equity ownership, not a direct liquidation of Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury.

Strategy has separately said that about 13 million of its shares are tracked by MSCI GIMI-linked funds, equal to roughly 3.1% of its basic shares outstanding and about 60% of its stated 30-day average daily trading volume. This provides a scale reference for why the index question matters. However, the headline outflow figures remain analyst estimates contingent on an outcome that has not yet been confirmed by a final MSCI decision.