BCRA Halts Dollar Purchases for the Third Time This Year, Ending a Streak of 27 Consecutive Positive Sessions

The Central Bank (BCRA) ended a streak of 27 consecutive sessions of dollar purchases in the official market on Monday, September 7, during a day of low volume and renewed pressure on the wholesale exchange rate. Thus, the accumulated balance for September remained at $81 million, while that for 2026 stood at $14.176 billion.

This data marked a significant change for the reserve accumulation program, although it came after several sessions with very limited purchases. Consequently, the daily average for September was $16 million, less than half of the $38 million in August and far from the $103 million in July, $68 million in June, and $137 million in May. Therefore, more than an isolated episode, the lack of purchases confirmed a deceleration that had already been appearing in the first days of the month.

This occurred in a market that operated with only $300 million in volume, a significantly lower level than in previous sessions. In this context, the BCRA was unable to absorb foreign currency, and the signal remained weak for the flow, even though the stock of gross reserves remained at high levels.

Despite this interruption in acquisitions, gross international reserves rose by $7 million and closed at $50.733 billion. Thus, the stock remained above $50 billion, although without showing a significant improvement compared to the previous session.

The stability of the reserves occurred on a particular session, as it was a holiday in the United States and there were no operations with liquidation abroad, a factor that, according to Salvador Vitelli, may have reduced part of the usual market dynamics. Nevertheless, external quotes did influence the valuation of the gross stock, as gold fell by 0.50% and would have reduced the accounting value of the Central Bank's holdings by about $50 million.

Conversely, the global dollar fell 0.30%, while the euro rose 0.10%, the pound advanced 0.20%, and the yen appreciated 1.20%. The yuan, on the other hand, showed no significant changes. Thus, the daily reserve balance combined a local exchange session with a lower external reference due to the holiday in the U.S., the negative impact of gold, and some compensation from the movement of certain currencies against the dollar.

On the exchange front, the wholesale dollar rose 0.23% and closed at $1,511.50 for sale. Thus, the quote approached the levels of late August, although it still remained below recent highs.

The increase occurred in a session with less market depth, which amplified price sensitivity to hedging demand. Meanwhile, the distance to the upper band ceiling, located at $1,879.97, remained at 22.94%, so the exchange rate continues to be far from the upper limit of the scheme.

Among the alternative dollars, the MEP fell 0.40% to $1,518.83, while the cash with settlement rose 0.30% to $1,587.38. Meanwhile, the blue dollar advanced 0.32% and closed at $1,545. With these values, the gap between the blue and the wholesale dollar stood at 2.22%, while the exchange rate rose to 4.51%.

The lack of purchases by the BCRA occurred alongside a new drop in interest rates in pesos. Thus, the TAMAR fell from 24.25% to 24.06%, while the BADLAR dropped more sharply, from 23.25% to 22.06%. This movement maintained the trend of decompression that began after the peaks in August, when the liquidity shortage had transferred much of the exchange tension to the monetary market.

However, the drop in rates coexisted with greater expected pressure on the dollar. In futures, the curve closed with widespread increases and an average variation of 0.19%. September advanced 0.03%, October rose 0.09%, December gained 0.21%, and the 2027 contracts also mostly ended in positive territory.

With these movements, the implied rate for September stood at 1.53% monthly, equivalent to an annualized 18.37%, while October was at 1.61%, or 19.36% annualized. Thus, the market once again reflected the same delicate balance of recent weeks: slightly lower rates can ease the cost of money, but they also reduce the appeal of holding pesos and increase the demand for hedging.

The interruption of the BCRA's buying streak once again highlights a central issue for the economic program. Although gross reserves remain above $50 billion, the figure that the IMF pays the most attention to is the net accumulation capacity. Therefore, the stability of the stock alone is not enough if the daily flow of purchases begins to lose strength.

In this context, the September 2026 Macroeconomic Situation Report from IIEP, UBA, and CONICET, recently published, helps frame this tension. According to the institute, the real exchange rate has stopped falling and the band scheme has managed to stabilize the dollar away from the extremes of the corridor. However, this stabilization occurs at a low level compared to the historical average, which forces the Government to maintain a delicate balance between competitiveness, rates, demand for hedging, and reserve accumulation.

In this framework, the BCRA's purchasing policy plays a key role. The IIEP noted that the monetary authority had been actively accumulating foreign currency to meet the net reserve targets agreed upon with the IMF. However, after purchases close to $1.5 billion monthly in the first quarter and over $2.2 billion per month between April and July, the pace has significantly moderated since August.

This slowdown is relevant because net reserves aim to measure the Central Bank's own assets once liabilities and short-term commitments are deducted. Therefore, an improvement in gross reserves due to valuation, accounting movements, or variations in gold may alleviate the daily picture, but it does not necessarily improve the metric that matters for assessing the BCRA's solvency and compliance with the program in the same proportion.

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