Market Maker Insights: BTC's Bottom May Be Near, Watch These Signals

Podcast Source: Crypto Banter

Compiled by: ShenChao TechFlow

Guest: Eric Krown, former NYSE Arca options market maker, now a full-time crypto trader and founder of the YouTube channel Krown's Crypto Cave.

Host: Alessandro, host of Crypto Banter's "Risk Takers" show.

Original Title: The Exact Bitcoin Levels That Decide the Next Move | Krown

Broadcast Date: July 19, 2026

Disclosure: Krown publicly stated that he bought spot BTC just above $60,000 and operates paid trading courses and exchange affiliate links (ByBit, BloFin, etc.). This episode focuses solely on technical analysis and does not promote specific project tokens.

Key Takeaways

Eric Krown, a former NYSE Arca options market maker with over 15 years of trading experience, began learning equity options as a teenager at the Pacific Stock Exchange and later served as an authorized market maker (MMAT) at NYSE Arca before transitioning to full-time crypto trading a few years ago. This is his fourth appearance on Alessandro's "Risk Takers" show, a monthly series that continuously tracks a core question: Where is the macro bottom for Bitcoin?

The biggest information increment this episode is Krown compiling a complete checklist of all the converging monthly signals. The 55 EMA recovery level is at $63,735, the stochastic indicator cross trigger level is at $64,371, the bi-weekly MACD histogram points to early August with a 168-day cycle, and the LTI tool issued a strong buy signal in January, with prices having retraced 22.64% (consistent with previous cycles' 20-22% retracements). He clearly stated that if BTC closes above $63,735 on the monthly chart, he has an 85% confidence that the macro bottom is being formed. On the other hand, the Fear and Greed Index has remained below 20 for two to three months, indicating extreme pessimism in market sentiment, while prices have already shown a major reversal, a divergence that has historically occurred at every macro low.

Highlights of Insights

On the psychological trap of waiting for $50,000

"Everyone is shouting for $40,000 to $50,000, but if you divide BTC by the M2 money supply, it has actually already tested the flash crash low of August 2024 at $49,270. The number you want, adjusted for inflation, has already been given to you."

On the monthly 55 EMA

"BTC took about six months to recover after falling below the 55 EMA in 2022, and once it did, the bull market officially began. In 2018, it only lost two monthly closes before recovering. Now we just need July to close above $63,735 for it to be reclaimed."

On the 168-day cycle

"In 2018, it took 168 days from the MACD histogram low to the actual price low. In 2022, it was also 168 days. This trend line has been triggered, and pushing forward 168 days lands us right at early August, perfectly coinciding with the monthly close and stochastic indicator cross time window."

On market sentiment

"The Fear and Greed Index is at 28, remaining below 20 for two to three months. Prices have reversed from the lows, yet sentiment is still in the basement. Looking back at 2015, 2019, and 2022, every macro low has followed this formula."

On traditional market rotation

"The semiconductor index has risen 300% from April 2025 to now, and I called the top in early July. Profits are flowing into healthcare biotech (IBB) and industrial sectors. However, the SPY chart is not bearish; I see no macro top signals at least until Q4."

On gold and copper

"Gold peaked in January, coinciding with a 10-year cycle, and is likely to trade sideways or decline in the coming years. Copper, on the other hand, has just broken out of a 20-year consolidation range, with a target price around $8. Copper is a direct proxy for AI data center construction."

Chapter One: Adjusting BTC for Inflation with M2 Money Supply

Alessandro: Last month you mentioned that BTC hovering around $60,000 would look good by summer; do you still feel that way?

Krown: Yes, and I now have about 85% confidence that the macro bottom is confirming at this month's close. Let me start with a perspective I think is severely overlooked. Many people are waiting for BTC to hit $40,000 to $50,000, with various influencers and retail traders calling for that range. But if you look at BTC divided by the M2 money supply, the situation is completely different. This chart uses money supply as the denominator, effectively standardizing for inflation.

The same situation occurred in 2022. Everyone was calling for $10,000 or $8,000, but if you standardized by M2, BTC had actually dropped to the equivalent of $10,000 in November that year. I said on my channel that if you were waiting for $10,000 to $11,000, it had already been reached when adjusted for money supply.

The current situation is no different. The $50,000 you want, adjusted for M2, has already tested the flash crash low of August 2024 at $49,270. The number you want has already been given to you; you just haven't measured it with the correct yardstick. Since 2020, the money supply has increased by 40% to 50%, yet we measure asset prices using the dollar as a constant, which is a cognitive bias in itself.

Alessandro: I have also used the BTC/M2 chart to illustrate that BTC is the only asset consistently making higher highs and higher lows against the money supply. The S&P and gold are actually declining against M2.

Krown: Exactly, the S&P just recently broke above its 1999 high, which also corresponds to a break against M2. Everything is related to money supply; nothing operates in a vacuum.

Chapter Two: Monthly 55 EMA, $63,735 as the First Confirmation Signal

Alessandro: Let's get into specific price levels. What is the current situation with the monthly 55 EMA you mentioned earlier?

Krown: Let's start with the simplest point. The 55 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) on the monthly chart has historically been a key moving average for BTC to confirm macro lows. In 2022, BTC spent about six months below it, and once it reclaimed it, that was a major signal that the bull market began. In 2018, it only lost two monthly closes before reclaiming and then surged. Looking back to 2015 and 2014, although historical data is limited, the 55 EMA also served as a base for bottoming.

Current situation: If BTC closes above $63,735 this month, it will have reclaimed the 55 EMA. We are currently near that price level. There are still 11 to 12 trading days left, and so far, everything is normal. This signal is very specific and easy to track. Even the staunchest bears must admit this is at least a major low, and BTC is likely to rebound above $70,000.

For short-term confirmation, I still need to see BTC close above $65,500. But on the monthly level, $63,735 is the first hard indicator.

Chapter Three: Triple Convergence of Monthly MACD, RSI, and Stochastic Indicator

Alessandro: What about the monthly MACD?

Krown: The monthly MACD is showing signs of weakening momentum, with July being the first awesome momentum signal since April. Historically, every time the monthly MACD momentum begins to weaken, the low has either already occurred or is so close that you might as well enter the market. This was the case in 2015, where the low was already in. In 2019, the reversal almost happened on that bar. Although 2022 had the extreme event of the FTX collapse later on, if you bought when the MACD signal appeared, you would only be a month early compared to the final low, and in the long run, you would be very satisfied.

In terms of RSI, the monthly RSI is currently at a level similar to the low in 2022, possibly even a bit lower, and below all previous macro lows in BTC's history. Multiple momentum oscillators are corroborating the same story at the same position.

Now looking at the monthly stochastic indicator. It has touched the oversold zone below 20, which is a low signal. The next confirmation is waiting for it to cross upwards. Every time this cross occurs, the low has already been in. I have tracked this since 2012, and there has never been an exception.

Here’s a key number: I backtracked, and if BTC closes at $64,371 or above, it will force the stochastic indicator to cross upwards. So you see two trigger levels within a narrow range: $63,735 reclaiming the 55 EMA and $64,371 triggering the stochastic indicator cross. If both hit simultaneously, along with the MACD momentum signal and low RSI, even the biggest bears will have to start considering whether this is the macro bottom.

Chapter Four: 168-Day Cycle Pointing to Early August

Alessandro: What about the bi-weekly MACD histogram trend line you mentioned earlier?

Krown: This is one of the tools I used to publicly call the macro low in 2022. Looking at the bi-weekly timeframe's MACD histogram, you can draw a downward trend line starting from 2018. Each time the histogram touches this line, a low is formed. Note that the low of the MACD histogram does not equal the price low; there is a time lag between the two.

But this time lag is very regular. In 2018: from the MACD histogram low to the actual price macro low, it was 168 days. In 2022: also 168 days. Precise to the day.

This time, the trend line has been triggered. Pushing forward 168 days lands you in early August. This perfectly coincides with the monthly 55 EMA reclaim and the stochastic indicator cross time window. Everything is converging at the same point in time.

Alessandro: So the signals you see are not isolated; they are synchronously pointing to the same conclusion?

Krown: Yes, that's why I say there's an 85% confidence. Any single indicator can be wrong, but when five or six independent signals trigger in the same week, the odds are completely in your favor. It's similar to World Cup odds. The French team is the biggest favorite, with a probability rising from 15% to 40%, but the combined probability of all other teams is still higher than France. You can have a solid reason to bet on France winning, but you're likely to be wrong.

Alessandro: Trading is the same; you never have 100% certainty.

Krown: Never. But when you have a probability advantage, you just need to stand on the side of the higher probability. You don't need to be right every time; in a market like BTC, you only need to be right once big.

Chapter 5: LTI Tools and the 22% Rule

Alessandro: What about your LTI (Long-Term Investor) tool? Last time you mentioned it gave a buy signal.

Krown: LTI is a long-term tool that integrates volatility, momentum, dates, and other fundamental factors. Every time it gives a strong buy signal, the price usually has about a 20% drop to the final low. Let me quickly go through the history.

In December 2014, the first strong buy signal appeared, and from the signal to the next closing low, it dropped by 22.90%. In 2018, from the signal to the low, it was 20.61%. In June 2022, the signal appeared, and it dropped to the macro closing low by 20.65%. This time, the strong buy signal appeared in January 2026, and from the signal to the current closing low, it has already dropped by 22.64%. Four signals, all with drops between 20-23%, remarkably consistent.

I have a premise for judging the macro low: the weekly trend must officially reverse. Currently, all higher time frames are still in a downtrend, that's a fact. But if the monthly closes above those numbers I mentioned, I would move my confidence from 80% to 85%. This doesn't mean BTC won't first rise to $75,000 and then drop back to $65,000, but the bottom structure is forming.

Chapter 6: Fear and Greed Index at 28, Classic Divergence of Sentiment and Price

Alessandro: What do you think about market sentiment?

Krown: The Fear and Greed Index is now at 28, having been below 20 for the past two to three months. From my YouTube analysis data, the number of people paying attention has also decreased significantly. But those who remain are extremely pessimistic.

Here’s a classic divergence: market sentiment is in the basement, yet prices have already completed a major reversal from the lows. This configuration has appeared at every macro low in 2015, 2019, and 2022. People think they are going against the crowd, but in reality, they are the crowd. The crowd is bearish and very certain.

Even if the macro low hasn't arrived yet, I don't think there's much downside left. The worst-case scenario is a rebound lasting several months. $60,000 is my key level, coinciding with psychological and technical levels. As long as BTC stays above this, I will treat it as a major low or even a macro low. A weekly or bi-weekly close below $60,000 would damage a lot of structures.

Alessandro: So your invalidation is a bi-weekly or 10-day close below $60,000?

Krown: Yes, technically you need to see a bi-weekly or at least a 10-day close below $60,000 to start damaging these signals. Below that, many things would fall apart. But I haven't seen any signs of that yet.

Chapter 7: Four-Year Cycle? I Don't Care, August is Close to October

Alessandro: What about the four-year cycle? Do you think this low will arrive before October?

Krown: To be honest, I no longer care about the four-year cycle narrative. Everyone reads on YouTube that "BTC bottoms a year after it peaks, so the low must be in October." But how do you define a peak? If you look at the BTC to M2 chart, the timing of the peak will be different. I see low signals appearing; I don't care what day the history textbooks say.

Alessandro: But it's only July now; if the bottom is right now or in a month or two, you have to admit the four-year cycle is right again.

Krown: That's right, July is only three months away from October. It's close enough that you can tip your hat and say, "Okay, it was right again." I don't need to be precise to October 16. In this market, you can make a lot of money without being perfect. But if BTC makes a new low in October, I would be very skeptical that it’s the real bottom because that would mean deeper technical damage.

Chapter 8: Semiconductors Peaking, Funds Rotating to Healthcare and Copper

Alessandro: You mentioned traditional markets are rotating; can you elaborate?

Krown: Semiconductors are the biggest topic. NVIDIA, Intel, Micron, I publicly called the top in early July. The semiconductor index has risen over 300% since April 2025, and just holding the index has tripled. People are taking profits, which is completely understandable.

But I’m not bearish on traditional markets. Rotation does not equal a bear market. Funds are moving out of semiconductors and into healthcare biotech. IBB (iShares Biotechnology ETF) just completed a daily breakout, and I think it will continue to rise until the end of the year. There might be a buying opportunity if it pulls back to around 180. The industrial sector is also strengthening.

The SPY chart is not bearish. It might pull back to around 7200 in the short term, but overall it still looks bullish into Q4. I don't think there are any macro topping signals right now, at least not until October or November. QQQ is weak in the short term; there might be a flash crash in early August (this has happened in early August for the past few years), but after that, it will continue to rise.

Alessandro: The memory ETF has also given back half of its gains, but the index hasn’t been affected much. Apple is now the largest company again; that’s crazy.

Krown: Apple’s chart looks very good, with at least 3 to 6 months of upside potential. This is how the market works: one sector peaks, and funds flow into the next sector, and the index continues to rise. This has been the pattern since 2008. People love to call macro tops, probably because they idolize those few people from "The Big Short." But honestly, it's much easier to go long in these markets than to short.

Alessandro: Lastly, what about gold and copper?

Krown: I remain extremely bearish on gold and silver. Gold peaked in January on a 10-year cycle, and it's likely to trade sideways to down over the next few years, with some rebounds to short. If you hold longs during this rebound, that’s a selling gift from God.

Copper is a completely different chart. It just broke out of a 20-year consolidation zone that started in 2006, with a target price of around $8. Copper is a direct proxy for the construction of AI data centers, which require a lot of copper. As long as copper stays above $560, it looks objectively bullish. I don't trade copper often, but from a purely technical perspective, the breakout is real, and there’s room for upside.