Bitcoin, Sports, and Politics: Predictive Markets Target $10 Trillion

Betting on bitcoin rather than soccer. Bernstein estimates that the annual volumes of predictive markets could reach $10 trillion by 2035, compared to about $410 billion expected in 2026. The team led by Gautam Chhugani anticipates an average growth rate of nearly 70% per year, fueled by the rise of contracts related to cryptocurrencies, stocks, and commodities.

Financial assets would then represent 49% of trades, compared to 12% in 2025. The share of sports would decrease from 61% to 38%, but its volumes would still multiply by more than a hundred in absolute value.

Key Points

• Bernstein forecasts $10 trillion in annual volumes on predictive markets by 2035, compared to $410 billion in 2026.
• Contracts on financial assets would rise from 12% to 49% of volumes, surpassing sports.
• Crypto now accounts for about 20% of Kalshi's volumes and 21% of Polymarket's.
• U.S. regulation of sports contracts may remain uncertain until 2027 or 2028.

Crypto and Commodities Expand Predictive Markets

Most predictive markets rely on binary contracts. The buyer typically receives one dollar if the predicted event occurs and nothing otherwise. A contract priced at $0.70 thus reflects an implied probability of 70%. Polymarket and Kalshi have extended this format to politics, sports, economic indicators, and financial markets.

The movement accelerated in 2026. Short-term contracts on cryptocurrencies and commodities contributed to the increase in trading. Some allow betting every fifteen minutes on the direction of bitcoin's price.

On Kalshi, the share of crypto rose from less than 5% of volumes in January to about 20% in August. Commodities also progressed, from less than $2 million traded in 2025 to nearly $590 million since the beginning of 2026, including $410 million in the month of August alone.

Cited by the press, Bernstein's teams also envision the emergence of contracts centered on a specific indicator of a company: vehicle deliveries, number of subscribers, or production volumes. The trader would no longer bet directly on the stock but on the publication of a particular operational data point.

The addressable market identified by Bernstein's teams reaches approximately $700 trillion in financial transactions in 2025 and $900 trillion in 2035. A penetration of just 0.5% would represent nearly $4.7 trillion in annual volumes for contracts related to financial assets. ![Bernstein estimates that the annual volumes of predictive markets could reach $10 trillion by 2035, compared to about $410 billion expected in 2026. The team led by Gautam Chhugani anticipates an average growth rate of nearly 70% per year, fueled by the rise of contracts related to cryptocurrencies, stocks, and commodities.

Financial assets would then represent 49% of trades, compared to 12% in 2025. The share of sports would decrease from 61% to 38%, but its volumes would still multiply by more than a hundred in absolute value.](https://journalducoin-com.exactdn.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Berstein-marches-predictifs-Polymarket-Kalshi-crypto.png?strip=all&quality=90&webp=90&lazy=1) ![Bernstein estimates that the annual volumes of predictive markets could reach $10 trillion by 2035, compared to about $410 billion expected in 2026. The team led by Gautam Chhugani anticipates an average growth rate of nearly 70% per year, fueled by the rise of contracts related to cryptocurrencies, stocks, and commodities.

Financial assets would then represent 49% of trades, compared to 12% in 2025. The share of sports would decrease from 61% to 38%, but its volumes would still be multiplied by more than a hundred in absolute value. Bernstein releases the unbelievable figure of $10 trillion! -- Source: Account X

Kalshi Dominates, While Sports Complicate Regulation

The entire sector has shifted from around $50 billion traded in 2025 to nearly $300 billion by the end of August 2026. Kalshi concentrated about 60% of this activity, compared to 35% a year earlier. The platform operates as a regulated market under the supervision of the CFTC, the U.S. derivatives regulator.

Polymarket Maintains a Different Profile. On its international platform, sports contracts represented about 52% of volumes since January, compared to 39% in 2025. Politics dropped from 32% to 22%, while crypto reached about 21%. Transactions still use USDC on the Polygon blockchain.

However, the growth of sports fuels a legal conflict in the United States. Kalshi considers its contracts as derivatives under the federal jurisdiction of the CFTC. Several states, on the other hand, classify them as sports bets subject to their own licenses. The decisions rendered so far vary by jurisdiction.

Bernstein does not anticipate a definitive clarification before 2027 or 2028. Contracts linked to bitcoin, stocks, or commodities are less exposed to this conflict with state gaming authorities. They remain subject to the federal framework for derivatives.

The anticipated growth therefore no longer relies solely on elections, sports results, or even the weather (yes, yes, it’s possible!). It mainly depends on the ability of predictive markets to become a new tool for trading financial risks, a segment to which today’s study attributes nearly half of the expected $10 trillion by 2035.

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