HTX DeepThink: Opportunities Concentrate on Profitable and Fund-Supported Assets, BTC Still Has Room for Recovery After Consolidation

On September 24, Chloe, a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that U.S. stocks may maintain high-level fluctuations in the coming month, and BTC and ETH still have room for recovery after consolidation, with opportunities concentrating on assets that can validate profitability and capital flow. This judgment is based on the premise that inflation has not further deteriorated, corporate earnings expectations remain resilient, and demand for crypto ETFs continues.

On the macro level, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% on September 16. The U.S. CPI in August rose by 3.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, while the core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month. The pressure from interest rates has not yet been alleviated, and the transmission of oil prices to inflation remains a major risk. If inflation cools and employment stabilizes, risk appetite is expected to rebound; however, if employment weakens suddenly, earnings downgrades may offset the benefits brought by falling interest rates.

U.S. stocks still have earnings support. The S&P 500 is expected to see a year-on-year earnings growth of 28.9% in the third quarter, up from 26.7% at the end of June, with a forward P/E ratio of 19.1 times, close to the ten-year average. Valuations near historical averages can provide a buffer for adjustments, but in a high-interest-rate environment, this does not mean the market is cheap, and the aforementioned earnings are still based on analysts' expectations, pending confirmation from earnings reports. In the coming month, the upward movement of U.S. stocks will rely more on earnings realization, and a breakthrough in the index requires stable yields; among AI infrastructure, companies that can convert orders into profits and cash flow are relatively advantageous, while those relying solely on capital expenditure narratives may further diverge.

In the crypto space, from September 21 to 22, the total net inflow of U.S. spot BTC ETFs was approximately $1.714 billion, and the net inflow of ETH ETFs was about $432 million, indicating that capital demand has extended to ETH, but the two-day data is still insufficient to confirm a trend. BTC broke through $87,000 on September 23 but fell back below $84,000, indicating that strong purchases may still be interrupted by macro shocks. The baseline scenario is to first digest the recent gains, then let capital flow determine the breakthrough direction: if the five-day cumulative net inflow of ETFs remains positive, BTC stabilizes above $87,000, and U.S. Treasury yields decline, the market may test $90,000; if the five-day capital flow turns negative and a price low appears, the recovery judgment will be invalidated. ETH has received capital support, but a comprehensive altcoin rally still requires broader spot demand confirmation.

Key upcoming windows include the PCE on September 30, non-farm payrolls on October 2, and CPI on October 14. Although the FOMC meeting on October 27-28 is outside this outlook period, policy expectations will still be reflected in prices in advance. A single-day increase is insufficient to confirm a trend, and a single-day pullback is also inadequate to overturn the baseline scenario; judgments need to be continuously updated with inflation, earnings guidance, and capital flows.

Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice and does not represent any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

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