CryptoQuant Predicts More Moderate Gains for This Bitcoin Cycle

According to Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin bull cycle could multiply its price by three to five times, compared to more than ten during certain historical phases. This forecast is based on less extreme volatility and significant institutional presence, but it does not represent a guaranteed price target.

In Brief

• Ki Young Ju anticipates a less explosive Bitcoin bull cycle, with a potential return of 3 to 5 times.
• A starting point at $58,000 would place Bitcoin between $174,000 and $290,000, without constituting an official target.
• The increase in market capitalization and the arrival of institutional investors could reduce volatility compared to previous cycles.
• On-chain data supports the idea of a more mature market, with potentially less severe corrections.
• These indicators do not guarantee any price trajectory, and the scenario will depend notably on flows and long-term holders.

CryptoQuant Forecasts a Less Explosive Bull Cycle

On September 22, Ki Young Ju presented a scenario in which Bitcoin's progression would remain below the explosions observed during its early cycles.

He emphasized: I expect a return of 3 to 5 times from this bull cycle, rather than a new parabolic rise of over 10 times.

The head of CryptoQuant believes that the market expansion diminishes the influence of speculative capital. When Bitcoin's valuation was lower, limited inflows were sufficient to trigger strong rises. Subsequently, outflows led to corrections of up to 80%.

His scenario relies on four key developments:

• The price could be multiplied by three to five during the cycle;
• The next bear market could lead to a less severe correction;
• Institutional investors would limit certain speculative movements;
• A higher capitalization could reduce the impact of each new inflow.

Such a progression implies a trade-off. Bitcoin may offer fewer parabolic increases; however, it would also be less exposed to the collapses observed during previous cycles. Ki Young Ju considers this stability as a factor capable of attracting more capital in the long term.

The Low Point at $58,000 Changes the Calculation

This publication by Ki Young Ju does not explicitly indicate the price from which his multiple should be applied. Thus, it would be misleading to directly multiply the current price, close to $86,000, by three or five.

At the end of June, Bitcoin had reached a low point near $58,000. Taking this level as the start of a new cycle, a multiplication by three could yield nearly $174,000. A multiplication by five should lead to $290,000. This range represents a simple mathematical translation of the scenario, not an officially set target by CryptoQuant.

A price of $174,000 could exceed the record of $126,080 reached in October 2025 by nearly 38%. Bitcoin has already gained about 49% since its low point in June. Part of the anticipated return would thus already be realized if this date were indeed used as a reference.

Moreover, a tripling of a price corresponds to a 200% increase, not a 300% increase. Similarly, a fivefold increase constitutes a 400% rise. Such a distinction helps avoid overestimating the implications of the forecast.

Bitcoin Volatility Decreases Gradually

This analysis by Ki Young Ju aligns with a trend documented by Fidelity Digital Assets. In a study published in 2024, the company observed a gradual decline in Bitcoin's volatility as its market capitalization increased. Logically, the same amount of capital has less impact when entering an increasingly deep market.

However, market size does not explain everything. A new analysis by Glassnode attributes about 19% of the fluctuations in trend-adjusted volatility to the supply held by long-term investors. This illiquid supply would account for nearly 12% compared to only 3% for market capitalization.

When many Bitcoins remain locked in long-term wallets, the volume available for transactions decreases. This situation can stabilize the price when supply and demand remain balanced. It can also amplify movements if demand suddenly increases or if former holders start to sell again.

On-Chain Indicators Do Not Guarantee an Increase

Ki Young Ju also bases his scenario on the profit and loss index from CryptoQuant. Its 365-day moving average shows lower peaks than during previous cycles, but also more resilient lows. The MVRV ratio has remained above one, including during the recent correction. Thus, holders have collectively retained a market value greater than their estimated acquisition cost.

Realized capitalization is also progressing, which CryptoQuant interprets as the arrival of new capital. Consequently, sales from large historical addresses would have slowed, while many significant players in the futures markets would have built bullish positions near the low point.

These indicators support the hypothesis of a more mature cycle; however, they do not validate an immediate trajectory towards $174,000 or $290,000. The annual average of the profitability index remains below zero and continues to decline. The evolution of institutional flows, volatility, and sales from long-term holders will determine whether CryptoQuant's scenario is confirmed.