Fitch Raises Global Economic Growth Forecast for 2026 to 2.6%

The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 2.6% from 2.4% expected in June. The agency also anticipates a tighter monetary policy from leading central banks due to risks associated with the volatility of global energy prices. Fitch has increased its growth forecast for the U.S. economy for 2023 and subsequent years by 0.2 percentage points to 2.1%. The forecasts for real key interest rates have changed due to the Federal Reserve's tighter policy. Fitch expects the Fed to raise interest rates in December, and by the end of 2027, rates could be 125 basis points higher than previously projected. The inflation forecast for the U.S. has been lowered due to slowing wage growth. In the Eurozone, economic activity has proven to be more resilient, allowing Fitch to improve its forecasts. In particular, Germany's GDP is expected to grow by 1% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026. The forecast for China's GDP growth in 2026 has been lowered to 4.5% due to weak domestic demand.

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