Probability of CPI Exceeding 3% in 2026 at 100%, Interest Rate Hike Probability at 52%

According to Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeding 3% in 2026 is indicated to be 100%. The probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September is 52%, showing a divergence between inflation bets and interest rate bets. In the market, the probabilities for 'exceeding 3%' and 'exceeding 3.5%' are both presented at 100%, with trading volume reaching approximately $1.4 million. The probability for 'exceeding 4.5%' is assessed at 12%, while 'exceeding 5%' is at 8%. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI for July rose by 3.4% compared to the previous year. The bets on exceeding 3% on Polymarket are based on official inflation trends. The betting odds for an interest rate hike are shown as 52% for the September meeting and 62% for the October meeting. Internal comments from the Fed are inconsistent, with Michael Barr stating that caution is needed regarding interest rate hikes in the event of slowing inflation. Christopher Waller indicated that if inflation continues to slow, he could support maintaining current interest rates. The response from individual investors is less hawkish than the prediction market, with 47% of respondents in a Stocktwits survey believing that there will be '0 rate hikes' this year. A critical date for Korean investors is September 11, when the August CPI will be announced.

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