CFTC Issues Notice to Limit the Listing of Mention-Based Prediction Contracts

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued a new notice indicating that mention-based prediction contracts, designed around whether specific individuals mention certain words in their speeches or attend certain events, carry a higher risk of manipulation. These contracts may only be listed under limited circumstances and must not violate the Commodity Exchange Act and related rules. The CFTC emphasized that such contracts can be deliberately influenced by individuals with insider information through their statements or attendance, affecting settlement outcomes. The agency has sued a former White House teleprompter operator regarding mention-based contracts on the Kalshi platform and has charged former Congressman George Santos with allegedly influencing contract prices through public statements.

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