Threshold to Break a Bitcoin Key Drops to 813 Logical Qubits

The threshold necessary to threaten Bitcoin has reached 813 logical qubits, a decrease of 65% from the estimated 2,330 qubits in 2017. Google Quantum AI had already reduced this estimate to around 1,200 qubits by the end of March. The public ranking ecdsa.fail, which tracks the most efficient circuit to break the elliptic curve secp256k1 used by Bitcoin and Ethereum, displayed this new floor on August 31. Circle has introduced the Quantum Tracker, a tool that monitors the evolution of logical qubits and the required attack threshold while integrating post-quantum solutions. This project includes a public competition hosted by Eigen Labs, where researchers and artificial intelligence agents submit quantum circuit optimizations. Currently, Google's Willow processor achieves 105 logical qubits, while QuEra's roadmap aims to exceed 1,000 qubits by 2029. Circle has also released a new tracking tool that overlays the logical qubits demonstrated in the lab and the required attack threshold against ECDSA. Circle's Arc network supports SLH-DSA, a post-quantum signature scheme validated by NIST, while retaining ECDSA. Proposals BIP-360 and BIP-361 aim for a migration to quantum-resistant addresses.

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