Bull Signal for Bitcoin: In 4 out of 5 Past Instances, Prices Increased

According to CryptoQuant's analysis based on on-chain indicators, Bitcoin has completed its early bullish phase and has entered a bull market stage. In four out of five past instances of this transition, prices continued to rise. The influx of approximately $2.98 billion into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over seven consecutive trading days also indicates that buying in the market is ongoing.

Conversely, pressure continues on companies issuing stocks and debt instruments to accumulate Bitcoin. The losses in these companies' market values and the difficulties they face in accessing financing present a different picture on the institutional side.

Critical Threshold for Bull Market in Bitcoin Surpassed

On September 26, Axel Adler Jr. evaluated the ratio of the 30-day moving average of the adjusted MVRV indicator to its 365-day average. This ratio surpassed its own 365-day moving average on August 20, signaling an early bull market. At that time, Bitcoin was trading at $71,255.

MVRV compares Bitcoin's market value with the realized value reflecting the average acquisition cost of investors. This helps assess whether market participants are generally in profit or loss.

The early bull phase lasted for 31 days, during which Bitcoin rose by 13%. With the ratio surpassing the 1.0 threshold on September 20, the short-term MVRV average exceeded the annual average. According to Adler's assessment, Bitcoin transitioned to the bull market stage at the level of $80,691.

According to the latest data shared in the analysis, the ratio is 1.018, and the Bitcoin price is at $84,156. Adler emphasized that maintaining the ratio above 1.0 is crucial for preserving the bullish structure. According to the analyst, in four out of the previous five instances of this transition seen since 2012, the price remained above the level where the bull market began.

On the ETF side, inflows continue. According to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $134.47 million on September 25. Thus, the uninterrupted inflow series that began on September 17 reached seven trading days.

The highest inflow of the day was $96.99 million for BlackRock's IBIT fund. Fidelity's FBTC fund saw an inflow of $49.32 million, while Bitwise's BITB fund experienced an outflow of $11.85 million. No net inflow or outflow occurred in other funds.

The total inflow over the last seven trading days reached approximately $2.98 billion. The funds saw their highest daily net inflow of the year at $999 million on September 21. Subsequently, inflows were $714.7 million on September 22, $347 million on September 23, $190.7 million on September 24, and $134.47 million on September 25.

With these movements, IBIT's cumulative net inflow rose to $65.28 billion, while FBTC's reached $11.06 billion. The total cumulative net inflow of all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $57.55 billion.

Value Loss Deepens in Companies Accumulating Bitcoin

According to Bitcoin Treasuries data, the total market value of the 50 publicly traded companies holding the most Bitcoin fell from $150 billion in July 2025 to $67 billion last month. Thus, approximately $83 billion was wiped out over a little more than a year. In the comparison for the last 12 months, the total value dropped from $124 billion to $57 billion.

According to a Financial Times review, 43 of the 50 companies were trading below their levels before announcing Bitcoin acquisition plans. Of these, 35 lost more than half of their value. The review focused on companies that switched to a Bitcoin reserve strategy, excluding cryptocurrency exchanges, miners, and businesses holding Bitcoin in their current operations.

This model relied on the companies' stocks trading at a premium relative to the net asset value of the held Bitcoins. Companies were acquiring more Bitcoin with the funds raised through issuing stocks or convertible bonds, expecting that the growing reserves would boost stock prices and facilitate new financing.

However, the simultaneous decline in Bitcoin and stock prices reversed this cycle. The loss of premium in stocks led to new issuances further diluting the shares of existing investors. As the cost of financing through bonds and preferred shares increased, some companies began selling Bitcoin or returning to their core operations.

According to Bitcoin Treasuries data, the top 50 corporate Bitcoin holders sold approximately 2,500 BTC more than they acquired in July. This net sale, valued at around $160 million, marked the first monthly net sale since the trend of accumulating Bitcoin reserves became widespread.

A significant portion of the value loss stemmed from Strategy. According to the FT, the market value of the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder fell by approximately $79 billion from last year's peak. At the time of FT's calculations, Bitcoin was around $78,000, down about 30% from a year ago. The losses in the stocks of companies that built reserves through debt and stock issuance exceeded the decline in Bitcoin.

Eric Benoist, a technology and data research expert at Natixis, noted that it is not easy for small companies to follow Strategy's model by sourcing from the markets every week. Benoist viewed the Bitcoin sales and the scaling back of operations as part of the market's restructuring process.

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